405 Wilderness Rd · Lyons, TX 77879

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Land · 40 Days on market

Built 2025 0.44 ac lot $127/sqft · 22% below area Est $180k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a wooded corner half acre lot near Lake Somerville, this charming one bedroom, one bathroom cabin offers the perfect blend of privacy, nature, and modern comfort. Surrounded by beautiful large trees and abundant wildlife, this open concept retreat features vaulted ceilings, stainless steel appliances, and lots of windows that fill the home with natural light while showcasing peaceful wooded views. Whether you are enjoying your morning coffee while watching deer roam through the trees or spending weekends on the lake, this property was designed for relaxation and outdoor living. With space for RV or boat parking and easy access to the state park, boating, fishing, hiking, and recreation are always within reach. Ideal as a weekend getaway, Airbnb investment, or full time escape from the city, this cozy cabin delivers the kind of lifestyle buyers dream about in the Lake Somerville area.

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 39 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (living area 1,100); Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (8 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: One total room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lyons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerville El (math 22% / reading 12%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 225 students, 77% FRL); Somerville Int (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 109 students, 72% FRL); Somerville H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 199 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.91%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,887
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -22.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $32,997
• Equity at exit: $49,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $94,152
• Equity at exit: $66,671

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77879

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $503	+0% $454	+5% $406	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $383	+0% $454	+5% $526	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $490	base $454	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
341 Little Berry Rd Somerville, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	45d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    listed $140,000 Active
20. 2026-05-12
    listed $140,000 Active 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    Nestled on a wooded corner half acre lot near Lake Somerville, this charming one bedroom, one bathroom cabin offers the perfect blend of privacy, nature, and modern comfort. Surrounded by beautiful large trees and abundant wildlife, this open concept retreat features vaulted ceilings, stainless steel appliances, and lots of windows that fill the home with natural light while showcasing peaceful wooded views. Whether you are enjoying your morning coffee while watching deer roam through the trees or spending weekends on the lake, this property was designed for relaxation and outdoor living. With space for RV or boat parking and easy access to the state park, boating, fishing, hiking, and recreation are always within reach. Ideal as a weekend getaway, Airbnb investment, or full time escape from the city, this cozy cabin delivers the kind of lifestyle buyers dream about in the Lake Somerville area.

21. 2023-02-21
    soldstatus
22. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Don't miss out on this right at half acre CORNER lot in Wilderness Sounds Subdivision. Just minutes from Lake Somerville! There is community water system and electric in the area. Unrestricted partially wooded lot just waiting for you to build your home on! All structures are welcome, RV, Manufactured Homes, Cabins and Barndominiums. Unrestricted, so you get to choose! Schedule you're showing Today! * * ADDITIONAL 1/2 ACRE ADJOINING LOT CAN BE PURCHASED WITH THIS LOT TOGETHER. (141 Whispering Wood TRL)

23. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Don't miss out on this right at half acre CORNER lot in Wilderness Sounds Subdivision. Just minutes from Lake Somerville! There is community water system and electric in the area. Unrestricted partially wooded lot just waiting for you to build your home on! All structures are welcome, RV, Manufactured Homes, Cabins and Barndominiums. Unrestricted, so you get to choose! Schedule you're showing Today! * * ADDITIONAL 1/2 ACRE ADJOINING LOT CAN BE PURCHASED WITH THIS LOT TOGETHER. (141 Whispering Wood TRL)

24. 2023-02-10
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Don't miss out on this right at half acre CORNER lot in Wilderness Sounds Subdivision. Just minutes from Lake Somerville! There is community water system and electric in the area. Unrestricted partially wooded lot just waiting for you to build your home on! All structures are welcome, RV, Manufactured Homes, Cabins and Barndominiums. Unrestricted, so you get to choose! Schedule you're showing Today! * * ADDITIONAL 1/2 ACRE ADJOINING LOT CAN BE PURCHASED WITH THIS LOT TOGETHER. (141 Whispering Wood TRL)

25. 2023-02-03
    status Pending
26. 2023-01-20
    listed $40,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Don't miss out on this right at half acre CORNER lot in Wilderness Sounds Subdivision. Just minutes from Lake Somerville! There is community water system and electric in the area. Unrestricted partially wooded lot just waiting for you to build your home on! All structures are welcome, RV, Manufactured Homes, Cabins and Barndominiums. Unrestricted, so you get to choose! Schedule you're showing Today! * * ADDITIONAL 1/2 ACRE ADJOINING LOT CAN BE PURCHASED WITH THIS LOT TOGETHER. (141 Whispering Wood TRL)

27. 2023-01-20
    listed $40,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Don't miss out on this right at half acre CORNER lot in Wilderness Sounds Subdivision. Just minutes from Lake Somerville! There is community water system and electric in the area. Unrestricted partially wooded lot just waiting for you to build your home on! All structures are welcome, RV, Manufactured Homes, Cabins and Barndominiums. Unrestricted, so you get to choose! Schedule you're showing Today! * * ADDITIONAL 1/2 ACRE ADJOINING LOT CAN BE PURCHASED WITH THIS LOT TOGETHER. (141 Whispering Wood TRL)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $3,429
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $4,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,453
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #6936
• State rank: #579 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lyons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 370
• Population (ZIP): 4,775

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Current HPI: 178.3416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $140,000 BCSRMLS
• 2023-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2023-02-10 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2023-02-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $40,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $40,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $278 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.