301 E Fern

Seadrift, TX 77983

$107,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $-164/mo
• Annual: $-1,965/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $29,960

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($740 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#333 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Calhoun County ISD (town): math 44% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #293 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seadrift School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 237 students, 63% FRL); Travis Middle (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 702 students, 74% FRL); Calhoun H S (math 53% / reading 38%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 987 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 95 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calhoun County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.1% in Seadrift — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.