500 W Tenth St #29

Gilroy, CA 95020

$280,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $426/mo
• Annual: $5,117/yr
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.54%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#206 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F.
• Gilroy Unified (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #477 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Glen View Elementary (487 students, 76% FRL); Solorsano Middle (780 students, 50% FRL); Gilroy High (1,739 students, 49% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $280k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.8% in Gilroy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.