138 Shady Ln

West Columbia, TX 77486

$118,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-93/mo
• Annual: $-1,116/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $33,292

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($822 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in West Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.