138 Shady Ln · West Columbia, TX 77486

$118,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1935 6,634 sqft lot $101/sqft · 37% below area Est $189k · 37% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers comfortable living in a quiet, established neighborhood. The home features a spacious living area, a functional kitchen with beautiful wood cabinetry, and a large laundry room with extra storage. The roof is approximately 5 years old, offering added peace of mind. Both bedrooms are generously sized with great natural light. The lot provides room to relax or garden, and the location is convenient to local schools, shopping, and dining. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizing, or investment.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Extra storage
• Large laundry room

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• BEAUTIFUL WOOD CABINETRY
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE
• APPROXIMATELY 5 YEARS OLD ROOF
• ROOM TO RELAX OR GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in West Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($822 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,068 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,936
• List price: $118,900
• Delta: -37.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 Humble St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,203 (+2%)	5mo	$215,900	$179	79
141 Shady Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+5%)	10mo	$240,000	$194	76
701 Blair St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,240 (+5%)	2mo	$99,497	$80	76
114 N 15th St	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,107 (-6%)	4mo	$60,000	$54	69
610 S Gray Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,187 (+1%)	11mo	$159,000	$134	64
106 S Mattson St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-8%)	2mo	$187,000	$173	63
624 Houston St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,136 (-4%)	8mo	$155,000	$136	60
158 Shady Ln	0.04mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,340 (+14%)	17mo	$125,000	$93	54
109 S Ringgold St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,043 (-12%)	16mo	$229,000	$220	51
104 Prewitt Ln	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-5%)	18mo	$72,000	$64	46
1118 Woodbine Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,135 (-4%)	7mo	$159,000	$140	45
135 Ellis Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,029 (-13%)	8mo	$192,000	$187	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $40,314
• Equity at exit: $87,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $121,459
• Equity at exit: $170,612

Cash invested: $33,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,715/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $102,469

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-59	+0% $-93	+5% $-127	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-133	+0% $-93	+5% $-53	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-63	base $-93	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,725
• Closing costs: $3,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 S 13th St West Columbia, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$765	$1.09	44d	1	0.12mi
136 Ellis Ln Unit C West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	12d	1	0.70mi
136 Ellis Ln Unit C West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	8d	1	0.70mi
1106 S Columbia Dr Apt B West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.95mi
1106 S Columbia Dr West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.95mi
1224 County Road 449 West Columbia, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	44d	1	1.38mi
200 Damon Dr West Columbia, TX	1.0	1.0	773	$902	$1.17	18d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,900 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,900 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,900 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,900 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,900 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,900 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,900 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,900 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,900 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,900 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,900 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,900 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,900 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,900 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $118,900 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    This well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers comfortable living in a quiet, established neighborhood. The home features a spacious living area, a functional kitchen with beautiful wood cabinetry, and a large laundry room with extra storage. The roof is approximately 5 years old, offering added peace of mind. Both bedrooms are generously sized with great natural light. The lot provides room to relax or garden, and the location is convenient to local schools, shopping, and dining. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizing, or investment.

16. 2025-12-10
    listed $134,900 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    This well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers comfortable living in a quiet, established neighborhood. The home features a spacious living area, a functional kitchen with beautiful wood cabinetry, and a large laundry room with extra storage. The roof is approximately 5 years old, offering added peace of mind. Both bedrooms are generously sized with great natural light. The lot provides room to relax or garden, and the location is convenient to local schools, shopping, and dining. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizing, or investment.

17. 2021-03-26
    soldstatus
18. 2021-03-22
    soldstatus Sold 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

19. 2021-02-10
    status Pending 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

20. 2021-02-01
    status Option Pending 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

21. 2021-01-21
    soldstatus
22. 2021-01-20
    price $105,000 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

23. 2020-12-09
    price $109,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

24. 2020-10-14
    price $114,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

25. 2020-09-28
    price $119,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

26. 2020-08-31
    listed $134,900 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Cute starter home! This home offers a 2 bedroom, 2 bath, with extra bonus room. Large living area. Hallway bathroom has a tub and shower. Kitchen has granite counter tops, microwave and stove. Bonus room could be used as a study or bedroom. Primary bedroom has vinyl plank flooring. Primary bathroom has tub and shower. New windows, water / gas lines and new roof all redone in 2012. All new Hardi plank all around house. Walk outside to a big backyard. Schedule your private showing and make this home yours today.

27. 2013-01-15
    soldstatus
28. 2001-10-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,715 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,715 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,660
• − Property taxes: −$2,715
• − Insurance: −$594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$3,459
• Taxable loss: −$3,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $-362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Columbia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Columbia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $118,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2021-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-20 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-09 Price Changed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2020-10-14 Price Changed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2020-09-28 Price Changed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2020-08-31 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2013-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,715 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.