4404 NE Spear Ln

Ankeny, IA 50021

$224,990D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Active · 445 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-148/mo
• Annual: $-1,781/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $62,997

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#3 in IA, #29 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Ankeny Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #15 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #363 of 616 statewide, top 62%, 413 students, 37% FRL); Parkview Middle School (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 246 statewide, top 16%, 867 students, 23% FRL); Ankeny High School (math 77% / reading 84%, grade A, #30 of 336 statewide, top 9%, 1,347 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 10% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 869 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Ankeny — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.