4404 NE Spear Ln · Ankeny, IA 50021

$224,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · Townhouse · 445 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 1,170 sqft lot $149/sqft · 10% below area Est $250k · 10% under $175/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +7.7/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover 4404 NE Spear Ln in Ankeny, Iowa. This thoughtfully designed two-story townhome offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,511 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Step inside to a long foyer that leads you to the heart of the home-a bright, open-concept main floor seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and great room, complete with a cozy electric fireplace. The kitchen shines with sleek white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious island, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, all bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. At the front of the home, the primary bedroom boasts a generous walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with dual vanity sinks and a walk-in shower. At the back, two spacious bedrooms with large closets share a full bathroom. A conveniently located laundry area completes the upper level, making this layout ideal for families or guests. This home comes with all appliances and blinds. Step into your new home at Canyon Landing Townhomes in Ankeny today! This home is Move-In Ready. Photos and video may be similar but not necessarily of subject property, including interior and exterior colors, finishes and appliances.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Large island
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• CANYON LANDING COMMUNITY
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIMARY BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Ankeny — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#3 in IA, #29 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Ankeny Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #15 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #363 of 616 statewide, top 62%, 413 students, 37% FRL); Parkview Middle School (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 246 statewide, top 16%, 867 students, 23% FRL); Ankeny High School (math 77% / reading 84%, grade A, #30 of 336 statewide, top 9%, 1,347 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 10% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 869 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $197,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,909
• List price: $224,990
• Delta: -7.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4330 NE Spear Ln	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,511 (0%)	0mo	$219,990	$146	100
4334 NE Spear Ln	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,511 (0%)	1mo	$214,990	$142	99
4424 NE Spear Ln	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,511 (0%)	1mo	$226,190	$150	99
4415 NE Spear Ln	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,511 (0%)	1mo	$217,990	$144	85
4407 NE Spear Ln	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,511 (0%)	1mo	$217,990	$144	84
103 NE Doe Pointe Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,546 (+2%)	2mo	$269,900	$175	66
601 NE Hart Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,376 (-9%)	2mo	$254,990	$185	58
596 NE Hart Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,376 (-9%)	2mo	$249,900	$182	57
592 NE Hart Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,376 (-9%)	1mo	$254,990	$185	57
602 NE Hart Ln	0.50mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,328 (-12%)	3mo	$249,990	$188	47
4236 NE Timber Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,711 (+13%)	1mo	$275,000	$161	45
4228 NE Timber Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,720 (+14%)	2mo	$277,000	$161	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-49,878
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-71,200
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $244,990 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 50021

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 869
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $203,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-71	+0% $-148	+5% $-226	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-227	+0% $-148	+5% $-69	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-91	base $-148	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4342 NE Spear Ln Unit 4342 Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.5	1511	$1,850	$1.22	93d	1	0.04mi
4331 NE 14th St Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.5	1547	$1,845	$1.19	15d	1	0.16mi
4421 NE 14th St Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.5	1547	$1,845	$1.19	15d	1	0.19mi
1313 NE Crossing Oaks Dr Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,799	$1.50	15d	1	0.20mi
1333 NE Crossing Oaks Dr Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,799	$1.50	15d	1	0.23mi
1407 NE Crossing Oaks Dr Ankeny, IA	4.0	3.0	1498	$2,995	$2.00	15d	1	0.25mi
4311 NE 16th St Ankeny, IA	4.0	2.5	1756	$2,095	$1.19	15d	1	0.27mi
4213 NE 6th St Ankeny, IA	4.0	3.0	1858	$2,295	$1.24	16d	1	0.33mi
604 NE Pearl Dr Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,395	$1.64	93d	1	0.35mi
4031 NE 5th St Bondurant, IA	4.0	2.5	1620	$2,295	$1.42	16d	1	0.37mi
221 NE Crossing Oaks Dr Ankeny, IA	4.0	2.5	1709	$2,195	$1.28	15d	1	0.46mi
4005 NE 2nd Ln Ankeny, IA	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	16d	1	0.56mi
3212 NE Fawn Ln Ankeny, IA	4.0	3.0	1492	$2,995	$2.01	16d	1	0.77mi
3101 NE 2nd Ln Ankeny, IA	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,895	$1.30	16d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail $175/mo · $2,100/yr

• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $224,990 Active 445 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $224,990 Active 444 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $229,990 Active 443 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $229,990 Active 442 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $229,990 Active 441 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $229,990 Active 440 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $229,990 Active 437 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,990 Active 436 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $229,990 Active 435 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $229,990 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $229,990 Active 431 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $229,990 Active 430 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $229,990 Active 429 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $229,990 Active 428 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $229,990 Active 427 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $229,990 Active 424 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,990 Active 422 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,990 Active 421 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $229,990 Active 420 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $229,990 Active 419 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $229,990 Active 418 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $229,990 Active 417 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $229,990 Active 416 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $229,990 Active 415 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $229,990 Active 413 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,990 Active 412 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $229,990 Active 411 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $229,990 Active 410 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $229,990 Active 409 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 408 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 407 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $229,990 Active 406 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,990 Active 405 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,990 Active 404 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,990 Active 403 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $229,990 Active 402 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $229,990 Active 400 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $229,990 Active 398 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $229,990 Active 397 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,990 Active 394 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    price $229,990 Active 393 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,990 Active 393 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,990 Active 392 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,990 Active 391 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $239,990 Active 389 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 388 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $239,990 Active 386 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,990 Active 385 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,990 Active 384 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 383 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $-444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,555–$22,665 screening

This two-story townhome is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, hardwood flooring, and neutral paint. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the exterior, replacing the flooring in the bathrooms, and installing smart home devices and a smart thermostat.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior of the home — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves the overall aesthetic and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

B Composite school gradezoned avg 77/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southeast Elementary School A- IA #181/616 Nat'l #2,792/41,679 Middle Parkview Middle School A+ IA #35/246 Nat'l #292/14,009 High Ankeny High School A IA #30/336 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ankeny Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1903690
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $75,384
• Composite: 70.91/100
• National rank: #246
• State rank: #15 of 289 in IA

A Composite livability gradescore 92/100

Livability — Ankeny

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #29

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ankeny, IA
• County: Polk County · 548,042 people
• City population: 76,589
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 30,283
• Household income: $99,572
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 548,042 people
• By 2030: 588,557 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 670,629 · +22.4%
• By 2050: 752,830 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 955,069 · +74.3%
• By 2100: 1,115,436 · +103.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 54.8% · R 43.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+11.5 2012: D+14.2 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.38%
• Current HPI: 208.945
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $239,990 DMMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $242,990 DMMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $247,990 DMMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $249,990 DMMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $242,990 DMMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $244,990 DMMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $246,990 DMMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $253,990 DMMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $254,990 DMMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-21 Listed $257,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-20 Listed $257,990 DMMLS