6099 Tosha Dr

Burlington, KY 41005

$312,500F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-176/mo
• Annual: $-2,116/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $87,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in KY, #2,792 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burlington Elementary School (math 44% / reading 49%, grade D-, #133 of 676 statewide, top 20%, 692 students, 46% FRL); Camp Ernst Middle School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 723 students, 48% FRL); Randall K. Cooper High School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #17 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,462 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.