6099 Tosha Dr · Burlington, KY 41005

$312,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1987 0.26 ac lot Est $296k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Burlington Meadows- 4 Bedroom 2 1/2 Bath,2 Car Oversized Garage, Partially Finished Lower Level,Large Deck with a nice View,Updated Kitchen,Storage Shed, Fireplace. Gutter Guards just installed, Great Yard, No HOA Fees,

Key facts

• Refreshed baths
• Large flat backyard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BURLINGTON MEADOWS COMMUNITY
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• REFRESHED BATHS
• LARGE FLAT BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; On-street parking; 2-car garage with side-facing door and opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Bi-level single-family home; Built in 1987
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Split rail and full wood fencing; Level lot; Paved road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in layout; Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (14 x 15); Bedroom 2 (10 x 13); Bedroom 3 (10 x 11); Bedroom 4 (11 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Storage space; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Chandelier; Bookcases; Recessed lighting; Built-in features; Brick, wood-burning fireplace; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room located on the lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in KY, #2,792 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burlington Elementary School (math 44% / reading 49%, grade D-, #133 of 676 statewide, top 20%, 692 students, 46% FRL); Camp Ernst Middle School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 723 students, 48% FRL); Randall K. Cooper High School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #17 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,462 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $229,755 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,834
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3131 Burlington Pike	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,599 (+1%)	4mo	$320,000	$200	77
5897 Ethan Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,568 (-1%)	10mo	$315,000	$201	76
3124 Allens Fork Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+4%)	10mo	$267,000	$162	74
3277 Mitchell Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-8%)	9mo	$272,000	$187	68
6090 Tosha Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,719 (+9%)	10mo	$305,000	$177	68
3032 Allens Fork Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (+4%)	3mo	$282,000	$171	67
3003 Monarch Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,614 (+2%)	8mo	$335,000	$208	58
3012 Featherstone Dr	0.41mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,596 (+1%)	15mo	$264,975	$166	56
5924 N Jefferson St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,740 (+10%)	2mo	$335,000	$193	49
3032 Washington St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,448 (-8%)	8mo	$230,000	$159	48
3013 Featherstone Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,716 (+8%)	15mo	$310,000	$181	47
2957 Holly Hill Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,710 (+8%)	12mo	$340,000	$199	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-62,080
• Equity at exit: $46,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-68,978
• Equity at exit: $27,019

Cash invested: $87,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41005

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,696/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,524

Max offer price $280,952

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,125
• Closing costs: $9,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6012 Kingsgate Dr Burlington, KY	3.0	2.5	2130	$2,401	$1.13	7d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $312,500 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,500 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $312,500 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $312,500 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $312,500 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $312,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $312,500 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-05-13
   listed $312,500 Active
9. 2024-09-27
   soldstatus $289,000
10. 2024-09-25
    soldstatus $289,000 Sold 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Burlington Meadows- 4 Bedroom 2 1/2 Bath,2 Car Oversized Garage, Partially Finished Lower Level,Large Deck with a nice View,Updated Kitchen,Storage Shed, Fireplace. Gutter Guards just installed, Great Yard, No HOA Fees,

11. 2024-08-23
    status Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Burlington Meadows- 4 Bedroom 2 1/2 Bath,2 Car Oversized Garage, Partially Finished Lower Level,Large Deck with a nice View,Updated Kitchen,Storage Shed, Fireplace. Gutter Guards just installed, Great Yard, No HOA Fees,

12. 2024-07-30
    price $289,000 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Burlington Meadows- 4 Bedroom 2 1/2 Bath,2 Car Oversized Garage, Partially Finished Lower Level,Large Deck with a nice View,Updated Kitchen,Storage Shed, Fireplace. Gutter Guards just installed, Great Yard, No HOA Fees,

13. 2024-07-13
    listed $299,900 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Burlington Meadows- 4 Bedroom 2 1/2 Bath,2 Car Oversized Garage, Partially Finished Lower Level,Large Deck with a nice View,Updated Kitchen,Storage Shed, Fireplace. Gutter Guards just installed, Great Yard, No HOA Fees,

14. 2004-09-23
    soldstatus $136,000
15. 2004-09-20
    soldstatus $136,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Check out these room sizes! Large Bi-level in mature neighborhood, tiered deck off kitchen overlooking flat backyard, oversized garage w/storage, outside storage shed, LL Fam rm has WBFP & rough-in for baths.

16. 2004-06-01
    listed $136,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Check out these room sizes! Large Bi-level in mature neighborhood, tiered deck off kitchen overlooking flat backyard, oversized garage w/storage, outside storage shed, LL Fam rm has WBFP & rough-in for baths.

17. 1991-05-06
    soldstatus $92,800
18. 1988-08-29
    soldstatus $84,000
19. 1988-02-26
    soldstatus $85,975

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,696 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,696 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,505
• − Property taxes: −$2,696
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − Depreciation: −$9,091
• Taxable loss: −$7,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $-296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #2792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, KY
• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 25,718
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 25,718
• Household income: $112,083
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.14%
• Current HPI: 220.1076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+263.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $312,500 NKMLS
• 2024-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-25 Sold (MLS) $289,000 NKMLS
• 2024-08-23 Pending — NKMLS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $289,000 NKMLS
• 2024-07-13 Listed $299,900 NKMLS
• 2004-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-20 Sold (MLS) $136,000 NKMLS
• 2004-06-01 Listed $136,000 NKMLS
• 1991-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $92,800 Public Records
• 1988-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $85,975 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,696 · +66.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.