9236 Derbyshire Dr

Ruskin, FL 34219

$448,542F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,575 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,352
• Tax + insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-749/mo
• Annual: $-8,990/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.16%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $125,592

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (33.2% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.