9236 Derbyshire Dr · Ruskin, FL 34219

$448,542

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,575 sqft · Land · 130 Days on market

Built 2025 6,000 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Shenandoah is a thoughtfully designed two-story home offering just under 2,600 square feet of flexible, modern living space. With 4 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and multiple gathering areas, it’s perfectly suited for growing families or those who appreciate room to spread out. The heart of the home is the open-concept first floor, where the kitchen, dining area, and great room flow seamlessly together. The kitchen is both stylish and functional, featuring quartz countertops and cabinetry on two walls, a full suite of stainless steel appliances, and a large island with a flush breakfast bar that seats four. A generous walk-in pantry ensures ample storage, w

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Covered lanai
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applies; Lease restrictions in effect
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount listed
• HOA & community: Community amenities include pool, playground, pickleball court(s), trails and fence restrictions; Community features also include dog park, sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed; Association fee approximately $15 monthly (total monthly fees shown $15)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage approximately 19 x 19)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion Feb 1, 2026); Faces west
• Construction: New construction; Built with block, frame, stucco and cement siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: Mattamy Homes (model: Shenandoah Low Country)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; In-wall pest system; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Double pane and insulated windows; Microwave; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included (appliances listed)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $299,439 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.16%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-129,121
• Equity at exit: $66,879

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-207,573
• Equity at exit: $38,782

Cash invested: $125,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,352
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$561 /mo · $6,728/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,943

Max offer price $340,131

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-439	-5% $-594	+0% $-749	+5% $-904	+10% $-1,059
Rent	-10% $-986	-5% $-867	+0% $-749	+5% $-631	+10% $-513
Rate	-1.0pp $-523	-0.5pp $-635	base $-749	+0.5pp $-865	+1.0pp $-984

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,136
• Closing costs: $13,456
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13089 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2471	$2,650	$1.07	24d	1	0.99mi
12930 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,679	$1.09	22d	1	1.03mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	24d	1	1.09mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	12d	1	1.15mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	11d	1	1.31mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	4d	1	1.31mi
6915 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	11d	1	1.38mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	4d	1	1.39mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	12d	1	1.42mi
6969 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	11d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $448,542 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $448,542 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-04-28
   status Active
4. 2026-04-28
   price $448,542
5. 2025-10-30
   price $489,542
6. 2025-10-16
   listed $490,542 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,125
• − Property taxes: −$6,728
• − Insurance: −$2,243
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,875
• − Management: −$2,875
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$13,048
• Taxable loss: −$17,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,114
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $448,542 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $489,542 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listed $490,542 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid