21851 Newland St #232

Huntington Beach, CA 92646

$269,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 283 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$516
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,072
• Net cashflow: $2,101/mo
• Annual: $25,211/yr
• Cap rate: 15.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.42%
• DSCR: 2.53
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $270k).
• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#306 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute A-, schools B+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Huntington Beach Union High (suburban): math 65% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #39 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 1.6% in Huntington Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,105/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 1226% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.