166 Alvin St

Rusk, TX 75785

$33,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $572/mo
• Annual: $6,864/yr
• Cap rate: 27.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.28%
• DSCR: 4.31
• 1% rule: 3.07%
• Cash to close: $9,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $33k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($228 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#405 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rusk ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #380 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 3.0% in Rusk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Old and worn
• Major: Bathroom tile — Worn and outdated
• Major: Exterior siding — Weathered and missing windows
• Major: Paint — Painted in outdated colors, some peeling