166 Alvin St · Rusk, TX 75785

$33,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 1950 Poor condition 6,098 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the potential in this investment opportunity located in a peaceful neighborhood just minutes from the heart of Rusk, TX. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 864 sq ft of space ready for renovation, making it an excellent project for investors or buyers with a vision. Situated on a . 14 acre lot, this property provides the perfect foundation for a flip, rental, or long-term hold. With its convenient location near the town square and strong upside potential, this home is a chance to create value and bring new life to a promising property.

Key facts

• Perfect foundation
• Ready for renovation
• Convenient location

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• READY FOR RENOVATION
• PERFECT FOUNDATION
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $33k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 3.0% in Rusk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#405 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rusk ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #380 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($228 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,030 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.28%
• DSCR: 4.31
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $52,385
• Equity at exit: $27,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.1%
• Equity multiple: 14.55×
• Total profit: $125,220
• Equity at exit: $57,289

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75785

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $289

Max offer price $33,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $583	+0% $572	+5% $561	+10% $549
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $532	+0% $572	+5% $612	+10% $652
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $580	base $572	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $33,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $33,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $33,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $33,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $33,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $33,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $33,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-02-18
    listed $33,000 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Unlock the potential in this investment opportunity located in a peaceful neighborhood just minutes from the heart of Rusk, TX. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 864 sq ft of space ready for renovation, making it an excellent project for investors or buyers with a vision. Situated on a . 14 acre lot, this property provides the perfect foundation for a flip, rental, or long-term hold. With its convenient location near the town square and strong upside potential, this home is a chance to create value and bring new life to a promising property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,849
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$972
• − Management: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $6,740
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,618
• After-tax cash flow: $5,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations, including new kitchen, bathroom, exterior, and paint. It has potential for significant value increase with these updates.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Old and worn
• Major Bathroom tile — Worn and outdated
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and missing windows
• Major Paint — Painted in outdated colors, some peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale New bathroom tile and fixtures — Up-to-date bathroom will appeal to buyers
• Resale New exterior siding and windows — Fresh exterior will improve curb appeal
• Resale Paint job — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing
• Rental HVAC system — A functional HVAC system will attract renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom tile · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and missing windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Painted in outdated colors, some peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom tile and fixtures — Up-to-date bathroom will appeal to buyers ↑
• Resale New exterior siding and windows — Fresh exterior will improve curb appeal ↑
• Resale Paint job — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing ↑
• Rental HVAC system — A functional HVAC system will attract renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rusk ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838360
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,890
• Composite: 34.96/100
• National rank: #5062
• State rank: #380 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rusk

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #8394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rusk, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,769

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.09%
• Current HPI: 147.91
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $33,000 GTAR