406 Mathis St

Taft, TX 78390

$65,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $515/mo
• Annual: $6,175/yr
• Cap rate: 15.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.93%
• DSCR: 2.51
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#673 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Taft ISD (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #727 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodroe Petty El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 381 students, 92% FRL); Ricardo L Trevino J H (math 28% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 199 students, 90% FRL); Taft H S (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 242 students, 80% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $65k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 6.1% in Taft — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear, possibly rotting.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt, detracting from curb appeal.
• Major: interior flooring — Worn-out carpet, likely in need of replacement.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Painted walls with visible wear and tear, requiring repainting or replacement.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, but likely in need of inspection and potential upgrades.