406 Mathis St · Taft, TX 78390

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1946 7,500 sqft lot $59/sqft · 50% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor's special. With some TLC and attention to detail, this charming home can be brought back to it's former glory. This little gem has great looks on the exterior and situated on a deep lot. The living dining areas have exposed original hardwood floors. If you are an investor, or just looking for an affordable home, this may just be the one!!

Key facts

• Deep lot
• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• DEEP LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#673 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Taft ISD (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #727 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $65k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.55%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,045
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -50.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Industrial St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-9%)	14mo	$69,000	$68	63
111 Alende St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,094 (-1%)	2mo	$159,900	$146	63
901 Oak St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,050 (-5%)	16mo	$165,000	$157	58
309 Tutt Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,046 (-5%)	18mo	$69,900	$67	58
614 Victoria Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (-14%)	5mo	$79,900	$84	57
425 Ash St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+8%)	20mo	$49,900	$42	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $50,232
• Equity at exit: $34,632

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $120,861
• Equity at exit: $58,023

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78390

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,096/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $687

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $603	+0% $585	+5% $566	+10% $548
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $528	+0% $585	+5% $641	+10% $697
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $601	base $585	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 Tutt Ave Taft, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$1,150	$1.23	44d	1	0.33mi
414 3rd St Taft, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	0.47mi
921 Oak St Taft, TX	2.0	1.0	857	$1,400	$1.63	14d	1	0.50mi
620 Reynolds Ave Taft, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,900	$1.28	14d	1	0.52mi
425 Farm to Market 631 Unit 631 Taft, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	44d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $69,900 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Investor's special. With some TLC and attention to detail, this charming home can be brought back to it's former glory. This little gem has great looks on the exterior and situated on a deep lot. The living dining areas have exposed original hardwood floors. If you are an investor, or just looking for an affordable home, this may just be the one!!

18. 2015-12-15
    soldstatus
19. 1996-04-05
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,096 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,096 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,096
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,544
• After-tax cash flow: $5,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taft ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842060
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,110
• Composite: 20.29/100
• National rank: #8618
• State rank: #727 of 826 in TX

Livability — Taft

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #12651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taft, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,620

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 52% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.44%
• Current HPI: 123.4461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+118.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $69,900 CBMLS
• 2015-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,096 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.