4066 Beech Bluff Rd

Beech Bluff, TN 38313

$89,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $242/mo
• Annual: $2,904/yr
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.54%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rose Hill School (math 4% / reading 7%, grade F, #890 of 952 statewide, top 94%, 497 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Technology Magnet High School (math 2% / reading 13%, grade F, #290 of 332 statewide, top 87%, 549 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.