4066 Beech Bluff Rd · Beech Bluff, TN 38313

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1960 1.90 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS IS investor special. This homes potential could be amazing! On beautiful 1.9 acres in Beech Bluff, the land ism immaculate. Some love and AC could make this the home of your dreams!

Key facts

• 1.9 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rose Hill School (math 4% / reading 7%, grade F, #890 of 952 statewide, top 94%, 497 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Technology Magnet High School (math 2% / reading 13%, grade F, #290 of 332 statewide, top 87%, 549 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.54%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $812
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $20,414
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38313

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $378/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $267	+0% $242	+5% $217	+10% $191
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $203	+0% $242	+5% $281	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $265	base $242	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2023-06-30
   soldstatus $62,809
2. 2023-06-23
   soldstatus $62,809 Closed 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   AS IS investor special. This homes potential could be amazing! On beautiful 1.9 acres in Beech Bluff, the land ism immaculate. Some love and AC could make this the home of your dreams!

3. 2023-01-24
   status Pending
4. 2022-11-02
   listed $89,900 Active
5. 2022-09-23
   historical 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   AS IS investor special. This homes potential could be amazing! On beautiful 1.9 acres in Beech Bluff, the land ism immaculate. Some love and AC could make this the home of your dreams!

6. 2022-06-23
   listed $89,900 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   AS IS investor special. This homes potential could be amazing! On beautiful 1.9 acres in Beech Bluff, the land ism immaculate. Some love and AC could make this the home of your dreams!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $378 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $638 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 68.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$378
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$361
• After-tax cash flow: $2,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Beech Bluff

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beech Bluff, TN
• City population: 3,611
• Population (ZIP): 3,611

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.24%
• Current HPI: 229.6469
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2023-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $62,809 Public Records
• 2023-06-23 Sold (MLS) $62,809 CWTAR
• 2023-01-24 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-02 Listed $89,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Delisted — CWTAR
• 2022-06-23 Listed $89,900 CWTAR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $378 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.