102 Kentucky Dr

Newport News, VA 23693

$299,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,887 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-46/mo
• Annual: $-549/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-549/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Grafton Bethel Elementary (math 84% / reading 87%, grade A+, #61 of 1,108 statewide, top 6%, 599 students, 44% FRL); Grafton Middle (math 77% / reading 88%, grade A+, #18 of 342 statewide, top 5%, 874 students, 0% FRL); Grafton High (math 74% / reading 93%, grade A, #30 of 319 statewide, top 10%, 1,212 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 15% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.