102 Kentucky Dr · Newport News, VA 23693

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,887 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1958 0.85 ac lot $158/sqft · 19% below area Est $371k · 19% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single family, 0.85 Acres(Lot 10, 11), 3 Beds, 2 full baths, Central AC, Move-in ready. Excellent school district (Yorktown County) in Virginia Hampton Road area. Low-density areas in city and also great for home based business.

Key facts

• Central ac
• Low-density areas
• 0.85 acre lot

Tags

• CENTRAL AC
• EXCELLENT SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LOW-DENSITY AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-549/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Grafton Bethel Elementary (math 84% / reading 87%, grade A+, #61 of 1,108 statewide, top 6%, 599 students, 44% FRL); Grafton Middle (math 77% / reading 88%, grade A+, #18 of 342 statewide, top 5%, 874 students, 0% FRL); Grafton High (math 74% / reading 93%, grade A, #30 of 319 statewide, top 10%, 1,212 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 15% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,296 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,069
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -19.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 S Maple Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,023 (+7%)	12mo	$435,000	$215	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,236
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-11,148
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23693

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,333 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,355/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,391

Max offer price $290,915

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $39	+0% $-46	+5% $-130	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-138	+0% $-46	+5% $46	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $30	base $-46	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Otsego Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,900	$1.48	45d	1	0.37mi
12750 Saint George St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,300	$0.96	9d	1	0.84mi
1415 Waltham Ln Newport News, VA	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,995	$1.25	17d	1	1.03mi
1512 Auckland Ct Yorktown, VA	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,450	$1.29	45d	1	1.16mi
1517 Auckland Ct Newport News, VA	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,465	$1.17	45d	1	1.18mi
1510 Waltham Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	2035	$2,700	$1.33	25d	1	1.18mi
7 Friedman Pl Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,250	$1.46	12d	1	1.38mi
205 Orkney Pl Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	2072	$2,300	$1.11	25d	1	1.39mi
104 Landmark Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,802	$1.77	4d	1	1.41mi
1596 Winthrope Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,800	$1.66	45d	1	1.46mi
163 Windsor Castle Dr Unit B Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1369	$1,750	$1.28	22d	1	1.47mi
893 Henrico Ct Newport News, VA	4.0	2.5	2125	$2,950	$1.39	45d	1	1.48mi
259 Windsor Castle Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	25d	1	1.50mi
259 Windsor Castle Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,300	$1.46	45d	1	1.50mi
259 Windsor Castle Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,300	$1.46	18d	1	1.50mi
259 Windsor Castle Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,250	$1.43	17d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-03-13
   price $299,000 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Single family, 0.85 Acres(Lot 10, 11), 3 Beds, 2 full baths, Central AC, Move-in ready. Excellent school district (Yorktown County) in Virginia Hampton Road area. Low-density areas in city and also great for home based business.

6. 2026-03-12
   listed $309,000 Active 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Single family, 0.85 Acres(Lot 10, 11), 3 Beds, 2 full baths, Central AC, Move-in ready. Excellent school district (Yorktown County) in Virginia Hampton Road area. Low-density areas in city and also great for home based business.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$97/yr (+$8/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,355
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 42,477 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,176
• Household income: $124,433
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $299,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-03-12 Listed $309,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,355 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.