4379 Gray Fox Hts

Cimarron Hills, CO 80922

$130,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$775
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $714/yr
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($714/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#111 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• El Paso County Colorado School District 49 (urban): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #27 of 86 in CO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Cimarron Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.