4379 Gray Fox Hts · Cimarron Hills, CO 80922

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2007 1,017 sqft lot Est $231k · 44% under $775/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Modular home located in the Chateau at Antelope community. This property offers a strong value and presents an opportunity for updates and improvements. Situated in a leasehold subdivision, the community features a clubhouse and additional amenities for residents. The home includes a spacious living room with a combined kitchen and dining area, three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. The layout provides a comfortable living space with good functionality. Conveniently located near major corridors, the property offers easy access to shopping, parks, and travel throughout the city. A great opportunity for buyers looking to add value in an established community. Leasehold does not

Key facts

• Modular home
• Clubhouse
• Spacious living room

Tags

• MODULAR HOME
• CHATEAU AT ANTELOPE COMMUNITY
• LEASEHOLD SUBDIVISION
• CLUBHOUSE
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, VA Vendee
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $775

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water provided by association/district; Electricity available; Gas available
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Existing home; No finished basement
• Exterior features: Level lot; Masonite-type siding; Composite shingle roof; UBC/IBC standard modular structure; Crawl space foundation

Interior

• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($714/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Cimarron Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#111 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• El Paso County Colorado School District 49 (urban): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #27 of 86 in CO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4157 Gray Fox Hts	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+13%)	1mo	$259,900	$176	70
7753 Grosbeak Pt	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+9%)	10mo	$210,000	$147	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-22,872
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-36,572
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80922

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $684/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$775
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,985

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $96	+0% $59	+5% $23	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-22	+0% $59	+5% $141	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $93	base $59	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4424 Poplar Brook Dr Colorado Springs, CO	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,995	$1.73	3d	1	0.50mi
4526 Crow Creek Dr Colorado Springs, CO	3.0	3.0	1436	$2,236	$1.56	15d	1	0.52mi
3873 Springs Ranch Dr Colorado Springs, CO	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,495	$1.36	22d	1	0.73mi
7125 Ash Creek Hts Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,700	$1.51	19d	1	0.80mi
7125 Ash Creek Hts #103 Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,600	$1.42	3d	1	0.80mi
4880 Kerry Lynn Vw #201 Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,650	$1.62	3d	1	0.81mi
6967 Stetson Ranch Pt Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,700	$1.67	3d	1	0.84mi
6967 Stetson Ranch Pt Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,700	$1.67	19d	1	0.84mi
4788 Kerry Lynn Vw Colorado Springs, CO	3.0	2.5	1561	$2,200	$1.41	3d	1	0.86mi
7321 Axis Pt Colorado Springs, CO	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,750	$1.50	3d	1	0.87mi
6944 Ash Creek Hts #204 Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,595	$1.42	3d	1	0.90mi
7665 Firehawk Ln Colorado Springs, CO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,295	$1.34	11d	1	1.23mi
3928 Riviera Grv Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,600	$1.56	3d	1	1.24mi
3896 Riviera Grv #101 Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,700	$1.57	3d	1	1.32mi
3766 Vanders Grv Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,894	$1.72	3d	6	1.34mi
3790 Pony Tracks Dr Colorado Springs, CO	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	3d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $775 · $9,300/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   status Active
3. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-12
   listed $130,000 Active
5. 2025-10-22
   historical
6. 2025-09-09
   price $177,500
7. 2025-09-09
   price $177,500
8. 2025-09-09
   price $177,500
9. 2025-08-15
   price $180,000
10. 2025-08-15
    status Active
11. 2025-08-15
    price $180,000
12. 2025-08-15
    status Active
13. 2025-08-15
    price $180,000
14. 2025-07-25
    price $183,000
15. 2025-05-21
    status Pending
16. 2025-05-21
    status Pending Accepting Backup Offers
17. 2025-05-20
    historical
18. 2025-04-24
    price $190,000
19. 2025-04-24
    price $190,000
20. 2025-04-24
    price $190,000
21. 2025-04-09
    listed $200,000 Active
22. 2025-04-09
    listed $200,000 Active
23. 2022-10-24
    soldstatus $245,000
24. 2016-11-14
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $715 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$684
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$9,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$933
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Paso County Colorado School District 49
• NCES district ID: 0803870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $75,604
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5210
• State rank: #27 of 86 in CO

Livability — Cimarron Hills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #9580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cimarron Hills, CO
• County: El Paso County · 689,348 people
• City population: 23,570
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 30,453
• Household income: $108,019
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 600.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 768,926 people
• By 2030: 815,739 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 903,489 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 981,204 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 1,155,542 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 1,202,070 · +56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.8) · D 43.8% · R 53.5% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.8 2020: R+10.8 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.10%
• Current HPI: 272.7237
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.36%
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — elevateMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — elevateMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — elevateMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $130,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $177,500 elevateMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $177,500 IRES
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $177,500 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $180,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — IRES
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $180,000 IRES
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $180,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $183,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-05-21 Pending — IRES
• 2025-05-21 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $190,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $190,000 IRES
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $190,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Listed $200,000 IRES
• 2025-04-09 Listed $200,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $684 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.