3 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,431 sqft ·
Built 1930
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 107 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,176/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$329
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$667
Net cashflow
$612/mo
Annual
$7,346/yr
Cap rate
8.75%
Cash-on-cash
8.77%
DSCR
1.39
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $272k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#134 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime F.
Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $210k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.9% in Milledgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,176/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1630% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29