2817 S 195th Ln

Buckeye, AZ 85326

$1,249,000F

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,900 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Active · 460 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,032/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,550
• Tax + insurance: −$2,082
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $-6,236/mo
• Annual: $-74,837/yr
• Cap rate: 0.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.40%
• DSCR: 0.05
• 1% rule: 0.24%
• Cash to close: $349,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $1.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-75k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (72.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (75.7% below list).
• It's been on market 460 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $303k (75.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Buckeye Union High School District (4284) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #129 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $201k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.3% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 460 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.