2817 S 195th Ln · Buckeye, AZ 85326

$1,249,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,900 sqft · Land · 460 Days on market

Built 2024 1.01 ac lot $320/sqft · 32% above area Est $945k · 32% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! If you are looking for a home w/all the bells & whistles, you've found it! Nestled on a HUGE 1-acre corner lot, it offers a 3-car garage & wide RV gate. Sheer beauty & mesmerizing attention to detail are found inside! High-end finishes, tile flooring, gorgeous light fixtures, upscale ceiling fans, & an inviting living room w/a lovely bay window. Come relax in this modern great room paired w/a wall-mounted fireplace, where comfort meets luxury. Magazine cover kitchen showcases a plethora of white cabinetry, quartz counters & backsplash, two islands w/breakfast bars, a pantry, & top-of-the-range SS appliances. Grand owner's retreat will impress you w/double door entry, direct outdoor access, & an elegant ensuite comprised of dual sinks, make-up desk, soaking tub, & a walk-in closet. Don't miss the den/office! Outside, you'll find the spacious backyard equipped w/a covered patio & gazebos. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional gem!

Key facts

• 1 acre corner lot
• Modern great room
• 3 car garage

Tags

• 1 ACRE CORNER LOT
• 3 CAR GARAGE
• WIDE RV GATE
• MODERN GREAT ROOM
• WALL MOUNTED FIREPLACE
• MAGAZINE COVER KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-75k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (72.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (75.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (75.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.3% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Buckeye Union High School District (4284) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #129 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 460 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $201k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,186 (75.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 460 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.24% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.40%
• DSCR: 0.05
• GRM: 34.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $945,000
• List price: $1,249,000
• Delta: 32.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -64.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-608,430
• Equity at exit: $186,230

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.08×
• Total profit: $-1,075,419
• Equity at exit: $107,991

Cash invested: $349,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85326

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 34.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,561 /mo · $18,735/yr
• Insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $-6,236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,926

Max offer price $346,585

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,250
• Closing costs: $37,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	4d	1	1.13mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	1d	1	1.13mi
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	1d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 460 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 459 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 458 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 457 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 455 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 454 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 451 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 450 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,249,000 Active 449 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 446 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 443 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 442 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    status Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Wow! If you are looking for a home w/all the bells & whistles, you've found it! Nestled on a HUGE 1-acre corner lot, it offers a 3-car garage & wide RV gate. Sheer beauty & mesmerizing attention to detail are found inside! High-end finishes, tile flooring, gorgeous light fixtures, upscale ceiling fans, & an inviting living room w/a lovely bay window. Come relax in this modern great room paired w/a wall-mounted fireplace, where comfort meets luxury. Magazine cover kitchen showcases a plethora of white cabinetry, quartz counters & backsplash, two islands w/breakfast bars, a pantry, & top-of-the-range SS appliances. Grand owner's retreat will impress you w/double door entry, direct outdoor access, & an elegant ensuite comprised of dual sinks, make-up desk, soaking tub, & a walk-in closet. Don't miss the den/office! Outside, you'll find the spacious backyard equipped w/a covered patio & gazebos. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional gem!

16. 2026-03-16
    historical 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Wow! If you are looking for a home w/all the bells & whistles, you've found it! Nestled on a HUGE 1-acre corner lot, it offers a 3-car garage & wide RV gate. Sheer beauty & mesmerizing attention to detail are found inside! High-end finishes, tile flooring, gorgeous light fixtures, upscale ceiling fans, & an inviting living room w/a lovely bay window. Come relax in this modern great room paired w/a wall-mounted fireplace, where comfort meets luxury. Magazine cover kitchen showcases a plethora of white cabinetry, quartz counters & backsplash, two islands w/breakfast bars, a pantry, & top-of-the-range SS appliances. Grand owner's retreat will impress you w/double door entry, direct outdoor access, & an elegant ensuite comprised of dual sinks, make-up desk, soaking tub, & a walk-in closet. Don't miss the den/office! Outside, you'll find the spacious backyard equipped w/a covered patio & gazebos. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional gem!

17. 2025-10-15
    price $1,249,000 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Wow! If you are looking for a home w/all the bells & whistles, you've found it! Nestled on a HUGE 1-acre corner lot, it offers a 3-car garage & wide RV gate. Sheer beauty & mesmerizing attention to detail are found inside! High-end finishes, tile flooring, gorgeous light fixtures, upscale ceiling fans, & an inviting living room w/a lovely bay window. Come relax in this modern great room paired w/a wall-mounted fireplace, where comfort meets luxury. Magazine cover kitchen showcases a plethora of white cabinetry, quartz counters & backsplash, two islands w/breakfast bars, a pantry, & top-of-the-range SS appliances. Grand owner's retreat will impress you w/double door entry, direct outdoor access, & an elegant ensuite comprised of dual sinks, make-up desk, soaking tub, & a walk-in closet. Don't miss the den/office! Outside, you'll find the spacious backyard equipped w/a covered patio & gazebos. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional gem!

18. 2025-07-24
    price $1,349,000 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Wow! If you are looking for a home w/all the bells & whistles, you've found it! Nestled on a HUGE 1-acre corner lot, it offers a 3-car garage & wide RV gate. Sheer beauty & mesmerizing attention to detail are found inside! High-end finishes, tile flooring, gorgeous light fixtures, upscale ceiling fans, & an inviting living room w/a lovely bay window. Come relax in this modern great room paired w/a wall-mounted fireplace, where comfort meets luxury. Magazine cover kitchen showcases a plethora of white cabinetry, quartz counters & backsplash, two islands w/breakfast bars, a pantry, & top-of-the-range SS appliances. Grand owner's retreat will impress you w/double door entry, direct outdoor access, & an elegant ensuite comprised of dual sinks, make-up desk, soaking tub, & a walk-in closet. Don't miss the den/office! Outside, you'll find the spacious backyard equipped w/a covered patio & gazebos. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional gem!

19. 2025-04-18
    price $1,350,000 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Wow! If you are looking for a home w/all the bells & whistles, you've found it! Nestled on a HUGE 1-acre corner lot, it offers a 3-car garage & wide RV gate. Sheer beauty & mesmerizing attention to detail are found inside! High-end finishes, tile flooring, gorgeous light fixtures, upscale ceiling fans, & an inviting living room w/a lovely bay window. Come relax in this modern great room paired w/a wall-mounted fireplace, where comfort meets luxury. Magazine cover kitchen showcases a plethora of white cabinetry, quartz counters & backsplash, two islands w/breakfast bars, a pantry, & top-of-the-range SS appliances. Grand owner's retreat will impress you w/double door entry, direct outdoor access, & an elegant ensuite comprised of dual sinks, make-up desk, soaking tub, & a walk-in closet. Don't miss the den/office! Outside, you'll find the spacious backyard equipped w/a covered patio & gazebos. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional gem!

20. 2025-03-15
    listed $1,450,000 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Wow! If you are looking for a home w/all the bells & whistles, you've found it! Nestled on a HUGE 1-acre corner lot, it offers a 3-car garage & wide RV gate. Sheer beauty & mesmerizing attention to detail are found inside! High-end finishes, tile flooring, gorgeous light fixtures, upscale ceiling fans, & an inviting living room w/a lovely bay window. Come relax in this modern great room paired w/a wall-mounted fireplace, where comfort meets luxury. Magazine cover kitchen showcases a plethora of white cabinetry, quartz counters & backsplash, two islands w/breakfast bars, a pantry, & top-of-the-range SS appliances. Grand owner's retreat will impress you w/double door entry, direct outdoor access, & an elegant ensuite comprised of dual sinks, make-up desk, soaking tub, & a walk-in closet. Don't miss the den/office! Outside, you'll find the spacious backyard equipped w/a covered patio & gazebos. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional gem!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$69,963
• − Property taxes: −$18,735
• − Insurance: −$6,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,911
• − Management: −$2,911
• − Depreciation: −$36,335
• Taxable loss: −$100,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$24,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-50,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buckeye Union High School District (4284)
• NCES district ID: 0401410
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,182
• Composite: 22.91/100
• National rank: #7995
• State rank: #129 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 75,359
• Household income: $89,876
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 38% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.00%
• Current HPI: 286.9242
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.92%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $1,249,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $1,349,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $1,350,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Listed $1,450,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $766 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.