22899 Byron Rd #74

Crestline, CA 92325

$89,997B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $971/mo
• Annual: $11,650/yr
• Cap rate: 20.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.20%
• DSCR: 3.32
• 1% rule: 2.42%
• Cash to close: $25,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#805 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools D-, crime F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 3.9% in Crestline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.