15 bd · 9.0 ba ·
2,060 sqft ·
Built 1968
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 185 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$7,552/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,778
Tax + insurance
−$612
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,586
Net cashflow
$3,576/mo
Annual
$42,916/yr
Cap rate
18.95%
Cash-on-cash
45.21%
DSCR
3.01
1% rule
2.23%
Cash to close
$94,920
Investor read
This is a 3 × 5-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $339k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $339k).
It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $298k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Meadow Hill Global Explorations Magnet School (math 24% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,566 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 1,013 students, 58% FRL); Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 15309% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $280k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $7,552/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29