The Ozark Plan

Lake Station, IN 46342

$93,500F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 969 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,089/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,123
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$650
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-1,269/mo
• Annual: $-15,229/yr
• Cap rate: -0.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.40%
• DSCR: -0.13
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $59,952

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $30k (67.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 969 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (67.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• River Forest Community School Corporation (suburban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #268 of 301 in IN (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John I Meister Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #762 of 994 statewide, top 78%, 346 students, 87% FRL); River Forest Middle School (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #279 of 330 statewide, top 86%, 379 students, 87% FRL); River Forest High School (math 12% / reading 52%, grade F, #295 of 369 statewide, top 82%, 532 students, 83% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; HOA is 60% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate -0.8% vs local median 6.0% in Lake Station — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 969 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 67% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?