The Ozark Plan · Lake Station, IN 46342

$93,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · Manufactured · 969 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition $650/mo HOA · 60% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -1.9

Listing remarks MLS

At the heart of this inviting space is a large kitchen island, capable of seating five guests comfortably.

Key facts

• Listed 968 days

🏗️ New construction. The $93,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $214,115.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $30k (67.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (67.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -0.8% vs local median 6.0% in Lake Station — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• River Forest Community School Corporation (suburban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #268 of 301 in IN (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John I Meister Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #762 of 994 statewide, top 78%, 346 students, 87% FRL); River Forest Middle School (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #279 of 330 statewide, top 86%, 379 students, 87% FRL); River Forest High School (math 12% / reading 52%, grade F, #295 of 369 statewide, top 82%, 532 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 969 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; HOA is 60% of rent.

Recommended offer $30,471 (67.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 969 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 67% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.40%
• DSCR: -0.13
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,115
• List price: $93,500
• Delta: -56.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1001 W 39th Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	0mo	$275,000	$231	73
1301 E 34th Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$174,900	$156	70
1350 E 34th Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,073 (-7%)	1mo	$115,000	$107	62
125 N Wisconsin St	0.88mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+2%)	1mo	$225,000	$192	58
297 Fox Trail Ct	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,198 (+4%)	1mo	$240,000	$200	53
2834 W 38th Ave	1.47mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+6%)	1mo	$189,900	$155	50
4124 Liverpool Rd	1.34mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+9%)	1mo	$247,000	$196	49
27 N Connecticut St	0.99mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	1mo	$228,750	$217	46
920 W Old Ridge Rd	0.85mi	3/1.0	1,023 (-11%)	1mo	$205,000	$200	42
1034 E Cleveland Ave	1.48mi	3/1.0	1,312 (+14%)	1mo	$192,500	$147	37
80 Lukes Ct	0.74mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,418 (+23%)	0mo	$252,500	$178	33
16 Beverly Blvd	0.99mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (-25%)	1mo	$211,000	$243	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -68.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-112,152
• Equity at exit: $31,925

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.12×
• Total profit: $-187,241
• Equity at exit: $18,513

Cash invested: $59,952 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active
• Median asking: $49,500 ($41/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +357.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46342

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,123
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$268 /mo · $3,212/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$650
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-1,269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,696

Max offer price $30,471

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,121	-5% $-1,195	+0% $-1,269	+5% $-1,343	+10% $-1,417
Rent	-10% $-1,355	-5% $-1,312	+0% $-1,269	+5% $-1,226	+10% $-1,183
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,161	-0.5pp $-1,215	base $-1,269	+0.5pp $-1,325	+1.0pp $-1,381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,529
• Closing costs: $6,423
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 W 37th Ave Unit 48 Hobart, IN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	184d	1	0.31mi
621 W 39th Pl Hobart, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,395	$1.27	0d	4	0.45mi
416 Van Buren Ave Hobart, IN	3.0	1.0	1085	$1,395	$1.29	142d	1	0.68mi
327 N Colorado St Hobart, IN	3.0	1.0	924	$1,625	$1.76	43d	1	0.77mi
333 Neringa Ln Hobart, IN	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,780	$1.62	0d	3	0.78mi
6 Huber Blvd New Chicago, IN	4.0	1.0	1184	$1,200	$1.01	2d	1	0.78mi
6 Huber Blvd New Chicago, IN	4.0	1.0	1184	$1,200	$1.01	12d	1	0.78mi
2955 Dekalb St Unit 21 Lake Station, IN	2.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	0d	1	0.93mi
2955 DeKalb St Lake Station, IN	3.0	2.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	86d	1	0.93mi
2955 DeKalb St Lake Station, IN	2.0	1.0	784	$1,100	$1.40	143d	1	0.93mi
2830 Grand Blvd Lake Station, IN	3.0	1.0	864	$1,395	$1.61	138d	1	1.04mi
1811 E 28th Ave Lake Station, IN	3.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	5d	1	1.06mi
4537 Park Ave Lake Station, IN	2.0	1.0	830	$1,300	$1.57	0d	1	1.07mi
1229 W 44th Pl Hobart, IN	2.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	95d	1	1.13mi
2715 Greene St Lake Station, IN	3.0	1.5	1003	$1,425	$1.42	43d	1	1.16mi
2716 Huntington St Lake Station, IN	3.0	1.0	832	$1,500	$1.80	132d	1	1.16mi
3753 Englehart St Lake Station, IN	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,450	$1.18	138d	1	1.22mi
1421 High St Unit 2W Hobart, IN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	161d	1	1.39mi
1421 High St Unit 1E Hobart, IN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	24d	1	1.39mi
3320 Randolph Pl Apt D Hobart, IN	2.0	1.0	1225	$1,400	$1.14	53d	1	1.39mi
2873 New Hampshire St Lake Station, IN	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	80d	1	1.41mi
215 East St Unit 3 Hobart, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	65d	1	1.46mi
215 East St Hobart, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	92d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $93,500 Active 969 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $93,500 Active 968 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $93,500 Active 967 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $93,500 Active 966 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $93,500 Active 965 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $93,500 Active 963 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $93,500 Active 962 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $93,500 Active 961 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $93,500 Active 960 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $93,500 Active 959 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $93,500 Active 958 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $93,500 Active 957 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $93,500 Active 956 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $93,500 Active 955 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $93,500 Active 954 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $93,500 Active 953 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $93,500 Active 952 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $93,500 Active 951 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $93,500 Active 950 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $93,500 Active 949 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $93,500 Active 948 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $93,500 Active 947 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $93,500 Active 946 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $93,500 Active 945 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $93,500 Active 944 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $93,500 Active 943 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $93,500 Active 942 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $93,500 Active 941 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $93,500 Active 940 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $93,500 Active 939 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $93,500 Active 938 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $93,500 Active 937 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $93,500 Active 936 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $93,500 Active 935 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $93,500 Active 934 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $93,500 Active 933 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $93,500 Active 932 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $93,500 Active 931 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $93,500 Active 930 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $93,500 Active 929 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $93,500 Active 928 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $93,500 Active 927 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $93,500 Active 926 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $93,500 Active 925 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $93,500 Active 924 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $93,500 Active 923 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $93,500 Active 922 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $93,500 Active 921 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $93,500 Active 920 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $93,500 Active 919 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,994
• − Property taxes: −$3,212
• − Insurance: −$1,071
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,229
• Taxable loss: −$19,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,638
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,765–$17,295 screening

This manufactured home features a modern kitchen and bathrooms with good condition, but potential for increased value through exterior improvements and HVAC upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a deck or patio — Increases outdoor living space and enhances curb appeal, attracting more tenants and buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John I Meister Elementary School F IN #762/994 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle River Forest Middle School F IN #279/330 Nat'l #12,096/14,009 High River Forest High School F IN #295/369 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Forest Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1804620
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,317
• Composite: 19.65/100
• National rank: #8738
• State rank: #268 of 301 in IN

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Lake Station

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #14929

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Station, IN
• County: Lake County · 484,026 people
• City population: 12,184
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 32,224
• Household income: $75,521
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.01%
• Current HPI: 260.2635
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.63%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+16.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $93,500 Zillow
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $85,500 Zillow
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $82,500 Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Listed $79,999 Zillow