4459 Allen Rd

Jarratt, VA 23867

$138,600B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$727
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $176/mo
• Annual: $2,109/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $38,808

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (8.0% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greensville County Public School District (town): math 36% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #114 of 131 in VA (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Greensville Elementary (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #896 of 1,108 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 103% FRL); Greensville County High (math 42% / reading 77%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 102% FRL vs 67% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Greensville County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greensville County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $108k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.