4459 Allen Rd · Jarratt, VA 23867

$138,600

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2000 0.43 ac lot $144/sqft · 25% below area Est $184k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming ranch featuring three bedrooms, a spacious living room, and a cozy country kitchen with plenty of cabinets. Comes with a refrigerator, dishwasher, and stove. Laundry hookups included. Enjoy a large yard perfect for gardening or entertaining.

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Large yard
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greensville County Public School District (town): math 36% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #114 of 131 in VA (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Greensville Elementary (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #896 of 1,108 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 103% FRL); Greensville County High (math 42% / reading 77%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 102% FRL vs 67% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Greensville County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($958 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Greensville County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $108k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,500 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,123
• List price: $138,600
• Delta: -24.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4517 Allen Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	13mo	$182,500	$175	67
4465 Allen Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+12%)	14mo	$181,000	$169	64
100 Dumot Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,080 (+12%)	10mo	$108,000	$100	62
96 Horseshoe Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,062 (+11%)	19mo	$195,000	$184	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $47,659
• Equity at exit: $83,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $132,319
• Equity at exit: $148,155

Cash invested: $38,808 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23867

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$727
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $138,600

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $215	+0% $176	+5% $137	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $125	+0% $176	+5% $226	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $211	base $176	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,650
• Closing costs: $4,158
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 1st St Jarratt, VA	3.0	1.0	1035	$1,275	$1.23	4d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $138,600 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Charming ranch featuring three bedrooms, a spacious living room, and a cozy country kitchen with plenty of cabinets. Comes with a refrigerator, dishwasher, and stove. Laundry hookups included. Enjoy a large yard perfect for gardening or entertaining.

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $154,000 Active 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Charming ranch featuring three bedrooms, a spacious living room, and a cozy country kitchen with plenty of cabinets. Comes with a refrigerator, dishwasher, and stove. Laundry hookups included. Enjoy a large yard perfect for gardening or entertaining.

3. 2020-03-03
   soldstatus $107,900 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   OWN INSTEAD OF RENT! CUSTOM HOME! Let us show you how to step into this adorable ranch! 3 Bedrooms/1 Bath. NEW carpet. Large kitchen with laundry closet, eat-in area. Situated next to woods on one side for privacy. Large back yard, convenient to points north & south. $102,900--don't miss this chance!

4. 2020-01-10
   listed $102,900 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   OWN INSTEAD OF RENT! CUSTOM HOME! Let us show you how to step into this adorable ranch! 3 Bedrooms/1 Bath. NEW carpet. Large kitchen with laundry closet, eat-in area. Situated next to woods on one side for privacy. Large back yard, convenient to points north & south. $102,900--don't miss this chance!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,764
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$693
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,032
• Taxable loss: −$200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$48
• After-tax cash flow: $2,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greensville County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,668
• Composite: 37.27/100
• National rank: #4454
• State rank: #114 of 131 in VA

Livability — Jarratt

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16968

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,924

Population outlook (Greensville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,295 people
• By 2030: 11,065 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 10,929 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 10,825 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 9,457 · -16.3%
• By 2100: 7,536 · -33.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 39% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Greensville

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.3) · D 54.3% · R 45.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: 28.5pp · 2024: 9.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.3 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+18.8 2012: D+27.8 2008: D+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.57%
• Current HPI: 201.2897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+34.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $138,600 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $154,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-03-03 Sold (MLS) $107,900 RVLG
• 2020-01-10 Listed $102,900 RVLG

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.