34 Andys Ln

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11941

$799,000A-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$1,455
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $6,205/mo
• Annual: $74,461/yr
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.28%
• DSCR: 2.48
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($74k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $799k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $751k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tuttle Avenue School (215 students, 0% FRL); Eastport-South Manor Junior Senior High School (math 68% / reading 61%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,530 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $650k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.