34 Andys Ln · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11941

$799,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1999 0.71 ac lot Est $906k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Colonial situated on a three-quarter acre in the Longtree Pond community. This residence offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, including a primary suite with a full bath. The home features an eat-in kitchen, formal living and dining rooms, and a family room ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional features include a full basement with bilco doors, an attached two-car garage and a backyard with an in-ground pool.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Family room
• Three-quarter acre

Tags

• THREE-QUARTER ACRE
• LONGTREE POND COMMUNITY
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back yard fencing; Private in-ground pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Basement access with Bilco doors; Full basement; 8 total rooms; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($74k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $751k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tuttle Avenue School (215 students, 0% FRL); Eastport-South Manor Junior Senior High School (math 68% / reading 61%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,530 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $650k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $751,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.28%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $906,048
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Drew Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,747 (+10%)	3mo	$780,000	$284	74
91 Drew Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,678 (+7%)	6mo	$870,000	$325	73
8 Drew Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,600 (+4%)	17mo	$950,000	$365	59
22 Howell Pl	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,300 (-8%)	6mo	$835,000	$363	58
16 Clay Pit Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,300 (-8%)	11mo	$1,158,000	$503	54
11 Sherri Ct	0.20mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+12%)	10mo	$825,000	$295	51
186 S Country Rd	0.43mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,404 (-4%)	15mo	$1,815,000	$755	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $625,352
• Equity at exit: $501,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.84×
• Total profit: $1,530,792
• Equity at exit: $908,462

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11941

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$1,122 /mo · $13,463/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $6,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,145

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134A Montauk Hwy Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2478	$15,000	$6.05	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Active
3. 2026-02-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-07
   listed $799,000 Active
5. 2025-02-04
   historical
6. 2024-10-25
   listed $799,000 Active
7. 2006-09-22
   soldstatus $650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,463 · $1,122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,483 · $1,124/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $180,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$13,463
• − Insurance: −$3,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,400
• − Management: −$14,400
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $65,742
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,778
• After-tax cash flow: $58,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastport-South Manor CSD
• NCES district ID: 3600125
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $91,204
• Composite: 59.55/100
• National rank: #918
• State rank: #147 of 590 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 2,472

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 22% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Danish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Current HPI: 327.173
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+22.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Listed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $13,463 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.