2177 E Gillcrest Rd

Gilbert, AZ 85298

$518,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,742/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,716
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$108
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-1,089/mo
• Annual: $-13,064/yr
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.01%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $145,040

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $518k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (47.1% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (47.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charlotte Patterson Elementary (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B+, #92 of 1,109 statewide, top 9%, 851 students, 8% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Arizona College Prep High School (math 91% / reading 83%, grade A, #2 of 381 statewide, top 0%, 1,775 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.