2177 E Gillcrest Rd · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$518,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2012 6,050 sqft lot $299/sqft · 6% below area Est $554k · 6% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy energy efficiency from day one with OWNED solar in this beautiful N/S facing single-story home located in the highly sought-after Adora Trails community. Offering 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed home features an open great room floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright & spacious feel throughout. The updated kitchen showcases granite countertops, a stylish backsplash & gas range-perfect for everyday living & entertaining. A split floor plan provides added privacy, while both bathrooms feature double sinks & custom woodwork finishes for a unique, elevated touch. Additional interior highlights include a water softener, reverse osmosis system, decorative hallway shelving ideal for books or display, plus updated black modern sinks & door hardware throughout. An electric vehicle charging setup adds even more convenience. The garage is complete with epoxy floors & overhead storage racks. Step outside to your private backyard retreat featuring a pergola, artificial turf, garden beds, pavers, travertine & a charming wood-burning firepit--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from the community elementary school, Adora Trails offers an unmatched lifestyle w/ scenic walking paths, parks, playgrounds, basketball courts, weekly food trucks, & many community events. Residents also enjoy a clubhouse w/ a full gym & studio room offering live fitness classes, plus a heated community pool for year-round swimming--all included in your low monthly HOA. Come see why so many are calling Adora Trails home.

Key facts

• 6,050 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $518k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (47.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (47.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charlotte Patterson Elementary (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B+, #92 of 1,109 statewide, top 9%, 851 students, 8% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Arizona College Prep High School (math 91% / reading 83%, grade A, #2 of 381 statewide, top 0%, 1,775 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,211 (47.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.01%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $553,538
• List price: $518,000
• Delta: -6.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2177 E Gillcrest Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,731 (0%)	0mo	$505,000	$292	96
2218 E Gillcrest Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,731 (0%)	15mo	$525,000	$303	81
2315 E Hazeltine Way	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,734 (+0%)	3mo	$507,500	$293	74
7764 S Abbey Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+2%)	10mo	$570,000	$324	74
2108 E Lindrick Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,734 (+0%)	14mo	$550,000	$317	73
2445 E Flintlock Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+2%)	2mo	$550,000	$313	70
2009 E Lindrick Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (+0%)	10mo	$517,500	$298	66
2297 E Mews Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+2%)	13mo	$569,000	$323	62
2428 E Runaway Bay Pl	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+2%)	15mo	$545,000	$310	59
7665 S Stuart Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (+2%)	6mo	$510,000	$290	53
2670 E Bellerive Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+2%)	9mo	$519,900	$296	51
7730 S Reseda St	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,959 (+13%)	3mo	$655,000	$334	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $159,637
• Equity at exit: $406,397

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $523,100
• Equity at exit: $819,276

Cash invested: $145,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,716
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,576/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-1,089

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,120

Max offer price $325,677

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-795	-5% $-942	+0% $-1,089	+5% $-1,235	+10% $-1,382
Rent	-10% $-1,305	-5% $-1,197	+0% $-1,089	+5% $-980	+10% $-872
Rate	-1.0pp $-828	-0.5pp $-957	base $-1,089	+0.5pp $-1,223	+1.0pp $-1,359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,500
• Closing costs: $15,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2227 E Stacey Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,499	$1.59	20d	1	0.29mi
2223 E Hazeltine Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,399	$1.38	0d	1	0.34mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,495	$1.42	20d	1	0.75mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,395	$1.36	4d	1	0.75mi
6718 S Garnet Way Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,100	$1.17	26d	1	0.83mi
1673 E Lafayette Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,500	$1.41	45d	1	1.05mi
4588 E Indian Wells Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	2134	$2,495	$1.17	5d	1	1.26mi
4649 E Augusta Ave Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,350	$1.07	26d	1	1.30mi
4649 E Augusta Ave Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,350	$1.07	7d	1	1.30mi
3068 E Ravenswood Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,550	$1.40	0d	1	1.30mi
3068 E Ravenswood Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,550	$1.40	14d	1	1.30mi
2250 E Kelly Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	1956	$2,700	$1.38	13d	1	1.31mi
2304 E Kelly Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,400	$1.34	0d	1	1.31mi
2304 E Kelly Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,400	$1.34	14d	1	1.31mi
4424 E Peach Tree Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,550	$1.22	45d	1	1.37mi
6081 S Topaz Pl Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,095	$1.14	23d	1	1.40mi
4375 E Cherry Hills Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	2073	$2,100	$1.01	0d	1	1.43mi
3147 E Vallejo Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2171	$2,350	$1.08	18d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectriclandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1608 chars)

   Enjoy energy efficiency from day one with OWNED solar in this beautiful N/S facing single-story home located in the highly sought-after Adora Trails community. Offering 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed home features an open great room floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright & spacious feel throughout. The updated kitchen showcases granite countertops, a stylish backsplash & gas range-perfect for everyday living & entertaining. A split floor plan provides added privacy, while both bathrooms feature double sinks & custom woodwork finishes for a unique, elevated touch. Additional interior highlights include a water softener, reverse osmosis system, decorative hallway shelving ideal for books or display, plus updated black modern sinks & door hardware throughout. An electric vehicle charging setup adds even more convenience. The garage is complete with epoxy floors & overhead storage racks. Step outside to your private backyard retreat featuring a pergola, artificial turf, garden beds, pavers, travertine & a charming wood-burning firepit--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from the community elementary school, Adora Trails offers an unmatched lifestyle w/ scenic walking paths, parks, playgrounds, basketball courts, weekly food trucks, & many community events. Residents also enjoy a clubhouse w/ a full gym & studio room offering live fitness classes, plus a heated community pool for year-round swimming--all included in your low monthly HOA. Come see why so many are calling Adora Trails home.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $518,000 1608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1608 chars)

   Enjoy energy efficiency from day one with OWNED solar in this beautiful N/S facing single-story home located in the highly sought-after Adora Trails community. Offering 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed home features an open great room floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright & spacious feel throughout. The updated kitchen showcases granite countertops, a stylish backsplash & gas range-perfect for everyday living & entertaining. A split floor plan provides added privacy, while both bathrooms feature double sinks & custom woodwork finishes for a unique, elevated touch. Additional interior highlights include a water softener, reverse osmosis system, decorative hallway shelving ideal for books or display, plus updated black modern sinks & door hardware throughout. An electric vehicle charging setup adds even more convenience. The garage is complete with epoxy floors & overhead storage racks. Step outside to your private backyard retreat featuring a pergola, artificial turf, garden beds, pavers, travertine & a charming wood-burning firepit--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from the community elementary school, Adora Trails offers an unmatched lifestyle w/ scenic walking paths, parks, playgrounds, basketball courts, weekly food trucks, & many community events. Residents also enjoy a clubhouse w/ a full gym & studio room offering live fitness classes, plus a heated community pool for year-round swimming--all included in your low monthly HOA. Come see why so many are calling Adora Trails home.

3. 2026-03-25
   price $519,000 1608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1608 chars)

   Enjoy energy efficiency from day one with OWNED solar in this beautiful N/S facing single-story home located in the highly sought-after Adora Trails community. Offering 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed home features an open great room floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright & spacious feel throughout. The updated kitchen showcases granite countertops, a stylish backsplash & gas range-perfect for everyday living & entertaining. A split floor plan provides added privacy, while both bathrooms feature double sinks & custom woodwork finishes for a unique, elevated touch. Additional interior highlights include a water softener, reverse osmosis system, decorative hallway shelving ideal for books or display, plus updated black modern sinks & door hardware throughout. An electric vehicle charging setup adds even more convenience. The garage is complete with epoxy floors & overhead storage racks. Step outside to your private backyard retreat featuring a pergola, artificial turf, garden beds, pavers, travertine & a charming wood-burning firepit--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from the community elementary school, Adora Trails offers an unmatched lifestyle w/ scenic walking paths, parks, playgrounds, basketball courts, weekly food trucks, & many community events. Residents also enjoy a clubhouse w/ a full gym & studio room offering live fitness classes, plus a heated community pool for year-round swimming--all included in your low monthly HOA. Come see why so many are calling Adora Trails home.

4. 2026-03-19
   listed $529,000 Active 1608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1608 chars)

   Enjoy energy efficiency from day one with OWNED solar in this beautiful N/S facing single-story home located in the highly sought-after Adora Trails community. Offering 4 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed home features an open great room floor plan with vaulted ceilings, creating a bright & spacious feel throughout. The updated kitchen showcases granite countertops, a stylish backsplash & gas range-perfect for everyday living & entertaining. A split floor plan provides added privacy, while both bathrooms feature double sinks & custom woodwork finishes for a unique, elevated touch. Additional interior highlights include a water softener, reverse osmosis system, decorative hallway shelving ideal for books or display, plus updated black modern sinks & door hardware throughout. An electric vehicle charging setup adds even more convenience. The garage is complete with epoxy floors & overhead storage racks. Step outside to your private backyard retreat featuring a pergola, artificial turf, garden beds, pavers, travertine & a charming wood-burning firepit--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from the community elementary school, Adora Trails offers an unmatched lifestyle w/ scenic walking paths, parks, playgrounds, basketball courts, weekly food trucks, & many community events. Residents also enjoy a clubhouse w/ a full gym & studio room offering live fitness classes, plus a heated community pool for year-round swimming--all included in your low monthly HOA. Come see why so many are calling Adora Trails home.

5. 2024-01-03
   historical $2,495
6. 2023-12-15
   listed $2,495

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,419 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$843/yr (+$70/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,016
• − Property taxes: −$2,576
• − Insurance: −$2,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,632
• − Management: −$2,632
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$15,069
• Taxable loss: −$22,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,498
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+20661.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $518,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $519,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $529,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Rental Removed $2,495 ARMLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed for Rent $2,495 ARMLS

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,576 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.