2201 Lakeway Blvd #39

Lakeway, TX 78734

$279,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,686/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$489
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-450/mo
• Annual: $-5,400/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeway El (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 564 students, 7% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 71% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $279k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.7% in Lakeway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?