2201 Lakeway Blvd #39 · Lakeway, TX 78734

$279,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · Condo public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1983 $181/sqft · 19% below area Est $344k · 19% under $489/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming condominium in the heart of Lakeway. Elementary school right across the street. Association pool and tennis court on property. Lakeway city swim center, skate park, and waterfront park. Master bedroom on main floor. Unit overlooks tennis court. 2 car garage. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Nearby amenities
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONTEMPORARY FINISHES
• NEARBY AMENITIES
• RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
• GOLF COURSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.7% in Lakeway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeway El (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 564 students, 7% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 71% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $279k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,512 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,651
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -18.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-69,206
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,499
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$504 /mo · $6,044/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$489
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,256

Max offer price $199,512

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-292	-5% $-371	+0% $-450	+5% $-529	+10% $-608
Rent	-10% $-662	-5% $-556	+0% $-450	+5% $-344	+10% $-238
Rate	-1.0pp $-309	-0.5pp $-379	base $-450	+0.5pp $-522	+1.0pp $-596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Lido Cir Lakeway, TX	2.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1637	$2,300	$1.41	6d	1	0.42mi
4 Muirfield Greens Cv Lakeway, TX	4.0	2.5	2188	$2,800	$1.28	6d	1	0.59mi
220 Sailmaster St Unit A Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,150	$1.99	25d	1	0.76mi
220 Sailmaster St Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,150	$1.99	45d	1	0.76mi
295 Mooring Cir Unit A Lakeway, TX	4.0	2.0	1550	$2,295	$1.48	6d	1	0.79mi
102 Bella Toscana Ave #1207 Lakeway, TX	2.0	2.0	1211	$2,200	$1.82	45d	1	0.82mi
287 Mooring Cir Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,400	$1.80	45d	1	0.82mi
611 Lido St Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$3,150	$1.46	0d	1	0.86mi
349 Fantail Loop Unit B Lakeway, TX	2.0	2.0	1119	$1,850	$1.65	25d	1	0.89mi
361 Fantail Loop Lakeway, TX	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,000	$1.79	14d	1	0.96mi
361 Fantail Loop Unit B Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1119	$2,000	$1.79	4d	1	0.96mi
373 Fantail Loop Unit B Lakeway, TX	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,695	$1.49	19d	1	0.99mi
105 World of Tennis Sq Lakeway, TX	3.0	3.0	2192	$2,500	$1.14	25d	1	1.08mi
439 Sailmaster St Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	2127	$1,795	$0.84	23d	1	1.09mi
439 Sailmaster St Unit B Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	2127	$2,500	$1.18	25d	1	1.09mi
120 World of Tennis Sq Lakeway, TX	4.0	4.0	2192	$3,495	$1.59	6d	1	1.10mi
204 World of Tennis Sq Lakeway, TX	4.0	4.0	2192	$2,950	$1.35	45d	1	1.10mi
521 Cutty Trl Apt B Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	19d	1	1.12mi
1 Madrone Estates CV Lakeway, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1114	$1,953	$1.75	0d	1	1.12mi
23 Juniper Berry Way #16 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2173	$2,850	$1.31	16d	1	1.17mi
23 Juniper Berry Way #16 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2173	$2,949	$1.36	25d	1	1.17mi
64 White Magnolia Cir Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2133	$2,890	$1.35	25d	1	1.17mi
208 Maxwell Way Lakeway, TX	4.0	3.0	2146	$4,100	$1.91	19d	1	1.20mi
2050 Lohmans Spur Rd Unit 1 Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$2,899	$1.74	6d	1	1.25mi
15101 Mettle Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$3,495	$1.59	6d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $489 · $5,868/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $279,000 Pending 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    status Active
14. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-18
    price
16. 2026-03-17
    price
17. 2026-03-04
    listed Active
18. 2019-05-07
    soldstatus
19. 2010-10-20
    soldstatus
20. 2010-10-19
    historical 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Charming condominium in the heart of Lakeway. Elementary school right across the street. Association pool and tennis court on property. Lakeway city swim center, skate park, and waterfront park. Master bedroom on main floor. Unit overlooks tennis court. 2 car garage. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

21. 2010-10-19
    soldstatus 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Charming condominium in the heart of Lakeway. Elementary school right across the street. Association pool and tennis court on property. Lakeway city swim center, skate park, and waterfront park. Master bedroom on main floor. Unit overlooks tennis court. 2 car garage. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

22. 2010-07-18
    listed $163,500 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Charming condominium in the heart of Lakeway. Elementary school right across the street. Association pool and tennis court on property. Lakeway city swim center, skate park, and waterfront park. Master bedroom on main floor. Unit overlooks tennis court. 2 car garage. Restrictions: Yes Sprinkler Sys:Yes

23. 1998-05-06
    soldstatus $130,000
24. 1998-05-05
    soldstatus
25. 1998-03-12
    historical
26. 1997-09-08
    listed $138,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,044 · $504/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,044 · $504/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$6,044
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,579
• − Management: −$2,579
• − HOA: −$5,868
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$9,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,394
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeway

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #7227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeway, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 22,145
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+17.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2019-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-10-19 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2010-10-19 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2010-07-18 Listed $163,500 Unlock MLS
• 1998-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-05 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 1998-03-12 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1997-09-08 Listed $138,900 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,044 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.