372 Sudden Valley Dr

Sudden Valley, WA 98226

$400,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$578
• HOA: −$168
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-1,235/mo
• Annual: $-14,815/yr
• Cap rate: 2.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.23%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (54.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (49.1% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (54.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#285 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Geneva Elementary School (432 students, 28% FRL); Bellingham High School (1,218 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 378 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $400k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.