431 Well St

Marlin, TX 76661

$14,500D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$76
• Tax + insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $851/mo
• Annual: $10,216/yr
• Cap rate: 76.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 251.62%
• DSCR: 12.20
• 1% rule: 8.28%
• Cash to close: $4,060

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $14k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $13k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $705 of equity ($100 loan paydown + $605 appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 76.7% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.