431 Well St · Marlin, TX 76661

$14,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1950 7,492 sqft lot $14/sqft · 82% below area ↓ 28% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

431 Wells St, Marlin, TX 76661 is a sf home that contains 1,040 sq ft with 0.17 ac lot. Investment Special! Opportunity awaits at 431 Wells St in Marlin, TX. This property is being sold AS-IS and offers strong potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project. Located on a residential street with convenient access to local amenities, and downtown Marlin and 30 minutes from Waco and a block from the local H-E-B. With the right vision and updates, this property could be a great rental, flip, or long-term hold. No repairs will be made by seller

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to h-e-b
• 7,492 sq ft lot

Tags

• QUIET RESIDENTIAL STREET
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN MARLIN
• CLOSE TO H-E-B

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 76.7% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $705 of equity ($100 loan paydown + $605 appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,195 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 251.62%
• DSCR: 12.20
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,682
• List price: $14,500
• Delta: -81.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Capps St	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,004 (-4%)	11mo	$79,000	$79	57
911 Chambers St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (+10%)	7mo	$39,999	$35	46
812 Capps St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,109 (+7%)	22mo	$95,000	$86	41
700 N Gresham St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	920 (-12%)	22mo	$29,500	$32	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.02×
• Total profit: $56,902
• Equity at exit: $7,497

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.92×
• Total profit: $125,524
• Equity at exit: $12,378

Cash invested: $4,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$76
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $123

Max offer price $14,500

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,625
• Closing costs: $435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $14,500 Pending 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $14,500 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,500 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $14,500 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $14,500 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $14,500 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $14,500 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $14,500 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $14,500 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $14,500 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-04-03
    price $14,500 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    431 Wells St, Marlin, TX 76661 is a sf home that contains 1,040 sq ft with 0.17 ac lot. Investment Special! Opportunity awaits at 431 Wells St in Marlin, TX. This property is being sold AS-IS and offers strong potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project. Located on a residential street with convenient access to local amenities, and downtown Marlin and 30 minutes from Waco and a block from the local H-E-B. With the right vision and updates, this property could be a great rental, flip, or long-term hold. No repairs will be made by seller

12. 2026-02-16
    listed $17,900 Active 580-char remark

    Show marketing remark (580 chars)

    431 Wells St, Marlin, TX 76661 is a sf home that contains 1,040 sq ft with 0.17 ac lot. Investment Special! Opportunity awaits at 431 Wells St in Marlin, TX. This property is being sold AS-IS and offers strong potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a value-add project. Located on a residential street with convenient access to local amenities, and downtown Marlin and 30 minutes from Waco and a block from the local H-E-B. With the right vision and updates, this property could be a great rental, flip, or long-term hold. No repairs will be made by seller

13. 2023-08-14
    historical
14. 2023-08-09
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $265 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: +$85/yr (+$7/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$812
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$72
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$422
• Taxable income: $10,615
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,547
• After-tax cash flow: $7,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $14,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $17,900 NTREIS
• 2023-08-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-08-09 Listed $20,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $180 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.