20 Kelder Rd

Shokan, NY 12461

$315,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $213/mo
• Annual: $2,559/yr
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Phoenicia Elementary School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,418 of 2,108 statewide, top 68%, 125 students, 40% FRL); Onteora Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 171 students, 44% FRL); Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $315k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.