20 Kelder Rd · Shokan, NY 12461

$315,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1940 1.00 ac lot $477/sqft · 9% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming Olivbridge cottage on a full acre is ideal as both a peaceful full-time residence or a perfect weekend escape. Step out onto the rear deck, which overlooks a serene, private green haven complete with its own organic garden. In the winter months, enjoy lovely seasonal views of Ashokan High Point. Conveniently located just minutes from the Ashokan Reservoir, the Ashokan Quarry Trail, and Tetta's Market, this inviting retreat has had a number of thoughtful upgrades. Come experience the best of upstate living in a prime location.

Key facts

• Private green haven
• Full acre
• Rear deck

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• REAR DECK
• PRIVATE GREEN HAVEN
• ORGANIC GARDEN
• SEASONAL VIEWS
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Public water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding
• Exterior features: No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Finished basement; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Phoenicia Elementary School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,418 of 2,108 statewide, top 68%, 125 students, 40% FRL); Onteora Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 171 students, 44% FRL); Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $315k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $291,146 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $692,466
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -54.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $30,850
• Equity at exit: $119,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $117,920
• Equity at exit: $168,842

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12461

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,911 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,644/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $315,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $315,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $315,000 Active 550-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $315,000 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    This charming Olivbridge cottage on a full acre is ideal as both a peaceful full-time residence or a perfect weekend escape. Step out onto the rear deck, which overlooks a serene, private green haven complete with its own organic garden. In the winter months, enjoy lovely seasonal views of Ashokan High Point. Conveniently located just minutes from the Ashokan Reservoir, the Ashokan Quarry Trail, and Tetta's Market, this inviting retreat has had a number of thoughtful upgrades. Come experience the best of upstate living in a prime location.

17. 2026-01-31
    status Active
18. 2026-01-31
    status Active
19. 2025-08-27
    status Pending
20. 2025-07-30
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2025-07-30
    status Pending
22. 2025-07-30
    status Pending
23. 2025-07-24
    listed $319,000 Active
24. 2025-07-23
    historical
25. 2025-07-18
    listed $319,000 Active
26. 2025-07-15
    listed $319,000 Active
27. 2014-09-12
    listed $121,000
28. 2014-01-21
    soldstatus $106,500
29. 2014-01-17
    soldstatus $106,500
30. 2014-01-17
    soldstatus $106,500
31. 2013-11-20
    listed $120,000
32. 2013-10-10
    listed $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,644 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$840/yr (+$70/mo · 23.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,644
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,795
• − Management: −$2,795
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$2,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $3,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shokan

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #888
• US rank: #17222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,359
• Population (ZIP): 1,426

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 346.6673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+162.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $315,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-27 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $319,000 HVCRMLS
• 2014-09-12 Listed $121,000 HVCRMLS
• 2014-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records
• 2014-01-17 Sold (MLS) $106,500 HVCRMLS
• 2014-01-17 Sold (MLS) $106,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-20 Listed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-10 Listed $120,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,644 · +62.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.