401 Avenue J Unit At Corner 4th Street

Marble Falls, TX 78654

$1,050D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1978 · MultiFamily · Pending · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,535/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6
• Tax + insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $1,205/mo
• Annual: $14,464/yr
• Cap rate: 1383.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 4919.85%
• DSCR: 219.91
• 1% rule: 146.19%
• Cash to close: $294

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $1k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($924) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $924 (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150 (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $294 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1383.8% vs local median 2.7% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.