3411 Payson Rd

Quincy, IL 62305

$169,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,209/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#506 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, employment D.
• Quincy SD 172 (town): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #328 of 620 in IL (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 68 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Quincy — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.