3411 Payson Rd · Quincy, IL 62305

$169,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

0.54 ac lot $105/sqft · 28% below area Est $235k · 28% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offering great potential for the right buyer! Situated on a half-acre lot at the edge of town, this home provides a great setting while still being within walking distance to the school. Features include an oversized 2-car garage plus a 2-car carport—perfect for vehicles, storage, or projects. Recent improvements include new central air in 2024 and a new waterline in 2023. The property does need TLC, making it an excellent opportunity to add value and customize to your taste. There is a well on the property, though it is not currently in use. Don’t miss this chance to create your ideal home in a convenient location!

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Well on the property
• New waterline

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOL
• OVERSIZED 2-CAR GARAGE
• NEW CENTRAL AIR
• NEW WATERLINE
• WELL ON THE PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Quincy — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#506 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, employment D.
• Quincy SD 172 (town): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #328 of 620 in IL (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 68 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $132,534 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,743
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -27.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 Payson Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,620 (0%)	0mo	$150,000	$93	100
3413 Lewis Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,539 (-5%)	11mo	$172,000	$112	70
3420 Westview Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,714 (+6%)	21mo	$212,000	$124	50
2124 S 40th	0.68mi	4/3.0	1,449 (-11%)	8mo	$224,500	$155	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-33,946
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-37,808
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62305

• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,232/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $152,098

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 138 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 137 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,900 Under Contract 136 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    historical Under Contract 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offering great potential for the right buyer! Situated on a half-acre lot at the edge of town, this home provides a great setting while still being within walking distance to the school. Features include an oversized 2-car garage plus a 2-car carport—perfect for vehicles, storage, or projects. Recent improvements include new central air in 2024 and a new waterline in 2023. The property does need TLC, making it an excellent opportunity to add value and customize to your taste. There is a well on the property, though it is not currently in use. Don’t miss this chance to create your ideal home in a convenient location!

11. 2026-01-29
    price $169,900 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offering great potential for the right buyer! Situated on a half-acre lot at the edge of town, this home provides a great setting while still being within walking distance to the school. Features include an oversized 2-car garage plus a 2-car carport—perfect for vehicles, storage, or projects. Recent improvements include new central air in 2024 and a new waterline in 2023. The property does need TLC, making it an excellent opportunity to add value and customize to your taste. There is a well on the property, though it is not currently in use. Don’t miss this chance to create your ideal home in a convenient location!

12. 2026-01-13
    listed $179,900 Active 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offering great potential for the right buyer! Situated on a half-acre lot at the edge of town, this home provides a great setting while still being within walking distance to the school. Features include an oversized 2-car garage plus a 2-car carport—perfect for vehicles, storage, or projects. Recent improvements include new central air in 2024 and a new waterline in 2023. The property does need TLC, making it an excellent opportunity to add value and customize to your taste. There is a well on the property, though it is not currently in use. Don’t miss this chance to create your ideal home in a convenient location!

13. 2025-09-15
    historical
14. 2025-08-13
    price $189,000
15. 2025-08-13
    price
16. 2025-08-04
    price $200,000
17. 2025-08-04
    price
18. 2025-07-08
    price $215,000
19. 2025-07-08
    price
20. 2025-06-20
    listed $225,000 Active
21. 2025-06-20
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,232 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,045 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,232
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quincy SD 172
• NCES district ID: 1733000
• Math proficiency: 24% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,132
• Composite: 21.91/100
• National rank: #8229
• State rank: #328 of 620 in IL

Livability — Quincy

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #10458

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 30,746
• Population (ZIP): 19,077

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,795 people
• By 2030: 64,436 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 61,007 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 56,851 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 46,424 · -29.4%
• By 2100: 34,305 · -47.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 2% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.6% · R 73.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.58%
• Current HPI: 144.3445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-24.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $169,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $179,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $189,000 Quincy AOR
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $200,000 Quincy AOR
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $215,000 Quincy AOR
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $225,000 Quincy AOR
• 2025-06-20 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,232 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.