312 N Spruce St

Shelbyville, IL 62565

$149,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $983/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-152/mo
• Annual: $-1,827/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (34.0% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#355 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelbyville CUSD 4 (town): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #225 of 620 in IL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.