312 N Spruce St · Shelbyville, IL 62565

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1948 9,159 sqft lot $131/sqft · 48% above area Est $146k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering room for everyone and everything! From the moment you step inside, you’ll appreciate the functional layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen provides the perfect space for morning coffee, family dinners, and gathering with friends. The large primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a private retreat with plenty of room to unwind. Upstairs, you’ll find generously sized bedrooms that could use a little TLC, giving you the opportunity to add your own personal touch. Outside, this property truly stands out with both an attached garage for convenience and an additional 2-car detached garage — ideal for extra vehicles, storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The fenced-in yard offers space for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. If you’re looking for space, functionality, and potential all in one — this is a home you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Eat-in kitchen
• Fenced-in yard

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED-IN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#355 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelbyville CUSD 4 (town): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #225 of 620 in IL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,299 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,429
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 1.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1502 W North 4th St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-10%)	2mo	$230,000	$225	67
915 W South 3rd St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+5%)	7mo	$122,500	$102	65
1000 North 1st St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (-9%)	9mo	$110,000	$106	64
705 W South 1st St	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,050 (-8%)	2mo	$75,000	$71	63
606 N Will St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,015 (-11%)	2mo	$25,000	$25	57
212 S Virginia St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (+5%)	8mo	$110,000	$92	56
308 S Chestnut St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,208 (+6%)	4mo	$8,000	$7	55
419 W South 2nd St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,264 (+11%)	3mo	$41,000	$32	52
1707 W North 3rd St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+10%)	7mo	$224,900	$178	52
815 W South 4th St	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	976 (-14%)	5mo	$135,000	$138	43
1111 W Northland Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	6mo	$152,000	$151	41
1035 E Northland Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,292 (+13%)	5mo	$162,000	$125	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-33,890
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-42,191
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62565

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,025/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $122,100

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $159,900 Active 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering room for everyone and everything! From the moment you step inside, you’ll appreciate the functional layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The eat-in kitchen provides the perfect space for morning coffee, family dinners, and gathering with friends. The large primary suite is conveniently located on the main level, offering a private retreat with plenty of room to unwind. Upstairs, you’ll find generously sized bedrooms that could use a little TLC, giving you the opportunity to add your own personal touch. Outside, this property truly stands out with both an attached garage for convenience and an additional 2-car detached garage — ideal for extra vehicles, storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The fenced-in yard offers space for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. If you’re looking for space, functionality, and potential all in one — this is a home you won’t want to miss!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,203 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,179/yr (+$98/mo · 115.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,025
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$944
• − Management: −$944
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,090
• After-tax cash flow: $-737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelbyville CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1736090
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,461
• Composite: 28.1/100
• National rank: #6827
• State rank: #225 of 620 in IL

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #7321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, IL
• City population: 7,422
• Population (ZIP): 7,422

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,512 people
• By 2030: 19,675 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 17,851 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 15,973 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 11,799 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 8,030 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.2% · R 79.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+57.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.35%
• Current HPI: 178.3002
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $159,900 CIBR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,025 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.