269 River Rd

Northville, NY 12134

$259,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Pending · 267 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,932/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-880/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-880/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.