269 River Rd · Northville, NY 12134

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 267 Days on market

Built 1988 1.20 ac lot $309/sqft · 13% above area Est $334k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take in the breathtaking views of the Adirondack Mountains and Sacandaga River from this year-round property, which includes many upgrades. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a new propane fireplace in the living room, and a cozy knotty pine four-season room, this home is perfect for relaxing in any season. Step outside to enjoy stargazing by the new outdoor fireplace and take advantage of all the nearby recreational opportunities. Currently used as a successful Airbnb, this property could easily serve as your own private getaway or year-round residence. Conveniently located near State Route 30, Lapland Lake Cross-Country Ski Center, Gore Mountain, and the village of Northville. A full list of improvements is available under documents including updated windows. This is a single wide with additions including a 4 season porch and a master bedroom, master bath and laundry room. That area has a foundation under it.

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Conveniently located
• 1.2 acre lot

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• NEW PROPANE FIREPLACE
• COZY KNOTTY PINE ROOM
• NEW OUTDOOR FIREPLACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-880/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $193,248 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,813
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -22.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $136,788
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $406,307
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,545/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $246,949

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $259,900 Pending 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $259,900 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,900 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,900 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,900 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,900 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-04-17
   price $279,000 916-char remark

   Show marketing remark (916 chars)

   Come take in the breathtaking views of the Adirondack Mountains and Sacandaga River from this year-round property, which includes many upgrades. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a new propane fireplace in the living room, and a cozy knotty pine four-season room, this home is perfect for relaxing in any season. Step outside to enjoy stargazing by the new outdoor fireplace and take advantage of all the nearby recreational opportunities. Currently used as a successful Airbnb, this property could easily serve as your own private getaway or year-round residence. Conveniently located near State Route 30, Lapland Lake Cross-Country Ski Center, Gore Mountain, and the village of Northville. A full list of improvements is available under documents including updated windows. This is a single wide with additions including a 4 season porch and a master bedroom, master bath and laundry room. That area has a foundation under it.

8. 2026-03-06
   price $285,000 916-char remark

   Show marketing remark (916 chars)

   Come take in the breathtaking views of the Adirondack Mountains and Sacandaga River from this year-round property, which includes many upgrades. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a new propane fireplace in the living room, and a cozy knotty pine four-season room, this home is perfect for relaxing in any season. Step outside to enjoy stargazing by the new outdoor fireplace and take advantage of all the nearby recreational opportunities. Currently used as a successful Airbnb, this property could easily serve as your own private getaway or year-round residence. Conveniently located near State Route 30, Lapland Lake Cross-Country Ski Center, Gore Mountain, and the village of Northville. A full list of improvements is available under documents including updated windows. This is a single wide with additions including a 4 season porch and a master bedroom, master bath and laundry room. That area has a foundation under it.

9. 2026-01-07
   price $290,000 916-char remark

   Show marketing remark (916 chars)

   Come take in the breathtaking views of the Adirondack Mountains and Sacandaga River from this year-round property, which includes many upgrades. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a new propane fireplace in the living room, and a cozy knotty pine four-season room, this home is perfect for relaxing in any season. Step outside to enjoy stargazing by the new outdoor fireplace and take advantage of all the nearby recreational opportunities. Currently used as a successful Airbnb, this property could easily serve as your own private getaway or year-round residence. Conveniently located near State Route 30, Lapland Lake Cross-Country Ski Center, Gore Mountain, and the village of Northville. A full list of improvements is available under documents including updated windows. This is a single wide with additions including a 4 season porch and a master bedroom, master bath and laundry room. That area has a foundation under it.

10. 2025-10-22
    price $295,000 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Come take in the breathtaking views of the Adirondack Mountains and Sacandaga River from this year-round property, which includes many upgrades. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a new propane fireplace in the living room, and a cozy knotty pine four-season room, this home is perfect for relaxing in any season. Step outside to enjoy stargazing by the new outdoor fireplace and take advantage of all the nearby recreational opportunities. Currently used as a successful Airbnb, this property could easily serve as your own private getaway or year-round residence. Conveniently located near State Route 30, Lapland Lake Cross-Country Ski Center, Gore Mountain, and the village of Northville. A full list of improvements is available under documents including updated windows. This is a single wide with additions including a 4 season porch and a master bedroom, master bath and laundry room. That area has a foundation under it.

11. 2025-09-25
    price $305,000 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Come take in the breathtaking views of the Adirondack Mountains and Sacandaga River from this year-round property, which includes many upgrades. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a new propane fireplace in the living room, and a cozy knotty pine four-season room, this home is perfect for relaxing in any season. Step outside to enjoy stargazing by the new outdoor fireplace and take advantage of all the nearby recreational opportunities. Currently used as a successful Airbnb, this property could easily serve as your own private getaway or year-round residence. Conveniently located near State Route 30, Lapland Lake Cross-Country Ski Center, Gore Mountain, and the village of Northville. A full list of improvements is available under documents including updated windows. This is a single wide with additions including a 4 season porch and a master bedroom, master bath and laundry room. That area has a foundation under it.

12. 2025-09-13
    listed $325,000 Active 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Come take in the breathtaking views of the Adirondack Mountains and Sacandaga River from this year-round property, which includes many upgrades. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a new propane fireplace in the living room, and a cozy knotty pine four-season room, this home is perfect for relaxing in any season. Step outside to enjoy stargazing by the new outdoor fireplace and take advantage of all the nearby recreational opportunities. Currently used as a successful Airbnb, this property could easily serve as your own private getaway or year-round residence. Conveniently located near State Route 30, Lapland Lake Cross-Country Ski Center, Gore Mountain, and the village of Northville. A full list of improvements is available under documents including updated windows. This is a single wide with additions including a 4 season porch and a master bedroom, master bath and laundry room. That area has a foundation under it.

13. 2024-11-21
    soldstatus $235,000
14. 2024-11-20
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the Sacandaga River! Nothing to do but move in and enjoy! Open floor plan living space w/cozy pellet stove for winter. Oversized master suite w/laundry. Large 3 season front porch opens to front deck, both w/river views! New flooring & replacement windows throughout. House is nestled in the trees, well above the road for a beautiful view of the river & mountains across. Enjoy fishing, kayaking, or canoeing from your 140' of river front, or explore the gorgeous ADK wilderness. Lapland Lake X-Country Ski resort is 10 minutes up the road. Plus, you're just a few minutes from the Village of Northville, shopping, restaurants, the public boat launch and more! High speed fiber for internet with Spectrum. Many furnishings are included.

15. 2024-10-30
    status Pending 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the Sacandaga River! Nothing to do but move in and enjoy! Open floor plan living space w/cozy pellet stove for winter. Oversized master suite w/laundry. Large 3 season front porch opens to front deck, both w/river views! New flooring & replacement windows throughout. House is nestled in the trees, well above the road for a beautiful view of the river & mountains across. Enjoy fishing, kayaking, or canoeing from your 140' of river front, or explore the gorgeous ADK wilderness. Lapland Lake X-Country Ski resort is 10 minutes up the road. Plus, you're just a few minutes from the Village of Northville, shopping, restaurants, the public boat launch and more! High speed fiber for internet with Spectrum. Many furnishings are included.

16. 2024-09-30
    status Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the Sacandaga River! Nothing to do but move in and enjoy! Open floor plan living space w/cozy pellet stove for winter. Oversized master suite w/laundry. Large 3 season front porch opens to front deck, both w/river views! New flooring & replacement windows throughout. House is nestled in the trees, well above the road for a beautiful view of the river & mountains across. Enjoy fishing, kayaking, or canoeing from your 140' of river front, or explore the gorgeous ADK wilderness. Lapland Lake X-Country Ski resort is 10 minutes up the road. Plus, you're just a few minutes from the Village of Northville, shopping, restaurants, the public boat launch and more! High speed fiber for internet with Spectrum. Many furnishings are included.

17. 2024-09-09
    historical Contingent 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the Sacandaga River! Nothing to do but move in and enjoy! Open floor plan living space w/cozy pellet stove for winter. Oversized master suite w/laundry. Large 3 season front porch opens to front deck, both w/river views! New flooring & replacement windows throughout. House is nestled in the trees, well above the road for a beautiful view of the river & mountains across. Enjoy fishing, kayaking, or canoeing from your 140' of river front, or explore the gorgeous ADK wilderness. Lapland Lake X-Country Ski resort is 10 minutes up the road. Plus, you're just a few minutes from the Village of Northville, shopping, restaurants, the public boat launch and more! High speed fiber for internet with Spectrum. Many furnishings are included.

18. 2024-08-07
    status Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the Sacandaga River! Nothing to do but move in and enjoy! Open floor plan living space w/cozy pellet stove for winter. Oversized master suite w/laundry. Large 3 season front porch opens to front deck, both w/river views! New flooring & replacement windows throughout. House is nestled in the trees, well above the road for a beautiful view of the river & mountains across. Enjoy fishing, kayaking, or canoeing from your 140' of river front, or explore the gorgeous ADK wilderness. Lapland Lake X-Country Ski resort is 10 minutes up the road. Plus, you're just a few minutes from the Village of Northville, shopping, restaurants, the public boat launch and more! High speed fiber for internet with Spectrum. Many furnishings are included.

19. 2024-07-08
    status Pending 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the Sacandaga River! Nothing to do but move in and enjoy! Open floor plan living space w/cozy pellet stove for winter. Oversized master suite w/laundry. Large 3 season front porch opens to front deck, both w/river views! New flooring & replacement windows throughout. House is nestled in the trees, well above the road for a beautiful view of the river & mountains across. Enjoy fishing, kayaking, or canoeing from your 140' of river front, or explore the gorgeous ADK wilderness. Lapland Lake X-Country Ski resort is 10 minutes up the road. Plus, you're just a few minutes from the Village of Northville, shopping, restaurants, the public boat launch and more! High speed fiber for internet with Spectrum. Many furnishings are included.

20. 2024-07-02
    listed $247,500 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath home on the Sacandaga River! Nothing to do but move in and enjoy! Open floor plan living space w/cozy pellet stove for winter. Oversized master suite w/laundry. Large 3 season front porch opens to front deck, both w/river views! New flooring & replacement windows throughout. House is nestled in the trees, well above the road for a beautiful view of the river & mountains across. Enjoy fishing, kayaking, or canoeing from your 140' of river front, or explore the gorgeous ADK wilderness. Lapland Lake X-Country Ski resort is 10 minutes up the road. Plus, you're just a few minutes from the Village of Northville, shopping, restaurants, the public boat launch and more! High speed fiber for internet with Spectrum. Many furnishings are included.

21. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $116,000
22. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $116,000
23. 2018-06-16
    listed $129,000
24. 2010-11-05
    soldstatus $69,900
25. 1995-10-26
    soldstatus $27,000
26. 1994-11-03
    soldstatus $32,742

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,969 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,424/yr (+$119/mo · 92.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,545
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$5,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,316
• After-tax cash flow: $436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621300
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,564
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #500 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,374 people
• By 2030: 4,157 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 3,641 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 3,238 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 2,644 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 2,017 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.3% · R 64.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+38.8 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+752.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $279,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $285,000 Global MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $290,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $295,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $305,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $325,000 Global MLS
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-20 Sold (MLS) $235,000 Global MLS
• 2024-10-30 Pending — Global MLS
• 2024-09-30 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2024-09-09 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2024-08-07 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2024-07-08 Pending — Global MLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $247,500 Global MLS
• 2018-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $116,000 Global MLS
• 2018-06-16 Listed $129,000 Global MLS
• 2010-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 1995-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 1994-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $32,742 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,545 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.