104 White Ridge Ln

Bethel Manor, VA 23693

$275,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,482 sqft · Built 1992 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$130
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,826/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (24.9% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#474 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Coventry Elementary (math 84% / reading 89%, grade A+, #47 of 1,108 statewide, top 5%, 623 students, 38% FRL); Grafton Middle (math 77% / reading 88%, grade A+, #18 of 342 statewide, top 5%, 874 students, 0% FRL); Grafton High (math 74% / reading 93%, grade A, #30 of 319 statewide, top 10%, 1,212 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 15% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.